Advanced Analytics Reveal How Far Colorado Buffaloes Have Fallen In Big 12

A recent update to ESPN’s Big 12 football rankings delivered a gut punch to the faithful in Boulder. The FPI index ranked the 16 teams of the Big 12, and the Buffs are near the basement.

The Reality Of ESPN’s Ranking

Out of 16 teams, the Colorado Buffaloes are ranked 13th in the conference (59th overall) and possess an FPI rating of 2.9. This suggests the Buffaloes are expected to perform just 2.9 points above an average college football team for the rest of the season.

At the top of the conference, the Texas Tech Red Raiders stand alone. Based on their performance, including that impressive road win over Utah, the FPI established them as the Big 12's undisputed elite. 

Below them, a formidable second tier of also-rans is forming, consisting of BYU, Utah, TCU, Iowa State, Arizona State, and Cincinnati. However, considering where the Buffs landed, a ranking this low feels like a catastrophic failure.

The Low Ranking Big 12 By FPI:

• No. 11: Arizona Wildcats (4-1) 
• No. 12: UCF Knights (3-2) 
• No. 13: Colorado Buffaloes (2-4) 
• No. 14: Houston Cougars (4-1) 
• No. 15: West Virginia Mountaineers (2-4) 
• No. 16: Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-4) 

The Buffaloes are just two spots away from the absolute bottom, marginally ahead of Houston and clearly ahead of the bottom-feeding West Virginia and Oklahoma State, who fired head coach Mike Gundy after 21 seasons.

Where is the disconnect?

The FPI is calculated based on factors like remaining opponents, returning production, and recruiting rankings. While Coach Prime’s recruiting efforts have also been disappointing, the FPI seems to have one simple answer for the low ranking: results on the field.

The metric doesn't care about who the head coach is or the possible improvements if five-star Julian Lewis takes over; it only creates a mathematical estimation of team strength based on what has happened so far on the field.

The FPI's low assessment is driven by several critical factors on the field. First and foremost is the inability to finish games. The Colorado Buffaloes have shown flashes, such as building a 14-0 lead against TCU, but have repeatedly failed to convert strong starts into wins, which has resulted in a disastrous 0-3 conference record.

The inability to finish has been due to the turnover woes. Quarterback Kaidon Salter, despite his electric play, has been making mistakes of late, including three first-half interceptions in the loss to TCU. Turnovers are immediate and severe momentum killers, and a high rate of giveaways has dramatically reduced their FPI.

Finally, the weak overall record—a 2-4 standing—places the Colorado Buffaloes alongside West Virginia for the worst overall record in the conference.

Watch the remaining schedule

The brutal truth is that things don't get easier. The two wins against Delaware and Wyoming do nothing to boost the FPI metric, which primarily values wins against quality opponents.

The FPI ranking is a direct indictment of the Colorado Buffaloes projected performance in a Big 12 schedule that is about to heat up. The Buffs face No. 22 Iowa State this weekend, who sit at No. 6 in this FPI ranking with a 5-1 record, despite losing its first game of the season last week to Cincinnati.

The Cyclones are a legitimate contender, and the FPI has suggested that the Buffaloes are huge underdogs at Folsom Field.

For Coach Prime, his staff, and the players, the reality check of a ranking provided by a computer, is not needed. Right now, the Colorado Buffaloes know they are one of the weakest teams in the Big 12. 

It’s going to take a significant performance to beat Iowa State alongside sustained wins vs Utah and Arizona, to change this narrative.