Alabama vs. Florida State Prediction: Crimson Tide Open Season at Seminoles

Alabama-FSU Keys to Victory

1. Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson’s First Start
After starting the dual-threat Jalen Milroe for the last two seasons, the move to Simpson is a marked change for the Alabama offense. The former five-star prospect has never started a college game before, though he’s seen some action across three years in the program. Simpson’s takeover also coincides with DeBoer’s reunion with former Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. That move should benefit Simpson, who projects to be more of a pure passer than Milroe. Weapons like Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard at wide receiver should ease Simpson’s transition, not to mention an offensive line with NFL-caliber talent. Simpson doesn’t have to light it up in his debut, but he cannot afford to make mistakes. The Seminoles’ defense projects to be better than it was in 2024, and one of its biggest additions was defensive back Jeremiah Wilson, a ballhawk from Houston.

2. FSU’s Personnel, Coaching Changes
Remember all those changes for the ’Noles? Perhaps no team in college football knows just how good and just how bad a transfer portal class can turn out. FSU is hopeful the 2025 arrivals turn out more like 2023 than last season. Castellanos arrives with a litany of offensive linemen from Power 4 schools and a handful of new weapons at wide receiver, including Duce Robinson from USC and Squirrel White from Tennessee. There’s more room for improvement on offense after averaging just 15.4 points per game in 2024, fourth-worst in the FBS. Former UCF coach Gus Malzahn was tapped to take over as offensive coordinator, a good hire for Norvell’s staff. Defensive improvements are also needed after allowing 28 points per game. Tony White was brought in from Nebraska to call the defense, and reinforcements arrived at all three levels. The ’Noles made the requisite moves to avoid a repeat of last year, but that doesn’t guarantee success against one of the best rosters in the FBS.

3. Battle in the Trenches
Alabama brings back three starting offensive linemen, including two All-America candidates in Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford. That group should give Simpson time in his debut and open up rushing lanes for the Crimson Tide running backs, but FSU’s strength on defense is up front with Darrell Jackson Jr. and James Williams, a pickup from Nebraska. On the other side of the ball, the ’Noles are trotting out an almost entirely new offensive line with just one returner, Richie Leonard IV, who’s coming back from a season-ending injury. It’s a good thing Castellanos is mobile, because LT Overton leads a defensive line that will be able to create pressure. However, Alabama will be without star Tim Keenan III (ankle). After the ’Noles were one of the worst rushing offenses in the FBS last season, this is as good a test as any to see how well they fixed those deficiencies.

Final Score Prediction: Alabama 38, Florida State 21

This is a bad spot for the Seminoles, who are in need of a win to get back on track. Even at home, it's difficult to see that happening with the talent advantage the Crimson Tide have, which is why this spread is set where it is. Take Alabama, which hasn't lost a season opener since 2001, to roll on the road.

ATS: Alabama -13.5
O/U: Over 50.5