Analytics Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Raiola has, obviously, added points in every game the Huskers have played this year. He ranks 24th in the nation in Expected Points Added (EPA) per drop-back. Of course, he’s not the only quarterback contributing for the Huskers this year. Backup TJ Lateef has also looked dynamic as a true freshman. Nebraska ranks 6th in the nation in EPA per play when passing.

*EPA assigns a “point” value for each play to distribute scoring action to each play and not just the touchdown, field goal, etc.

Michigan’s star quarterback, Underwood, has looked good through three games. He already has a start in a hostile environment, having made a trip to Norman. Underwood struggled in that game, completing just 9 of 24 attempts for 142 yards. However, he put up big numbers through the air against New Mexico and diced up Central Michigan as a runner last week. Interim Wolverine coach Biff Poggi has given him the “green light” to run again this week versus the Huskers. His EPA per drop back ranks 53rd nationally.

Emmett Johnson vs Justice Haynes

For better or worse, Emmett Johnson has emerged as a bell cow back for the Huskers. His 63 total touches lead the Big Ten, and he’s on pace for a 1000-yard rushing season. The RB2 spot has been a logjam so far this season. Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee are listed as the second and third backs, but Kwinten Ives is the team’s second leading rusher after being the top performer against Houston Christian. No matter who is running the ball, the Huskers’ backfield is bolstered by an offensive line putting up 2.2 line yards* per rush, good for the top 10 in the country.

Michigan’s Justice Haynes is a lead back in his own right, leading the Big Ten in rushing yards. He’s a home run hitting back with a long of 59 versus New Mexico and 75 versus Oklahoma, contributing to his 7.9 yards per carry. Haynes does a good job of avoiding negative plays as well as consistently picking up positive yardage.

Haynes may not be the Wolverines' biggest running threat on Saturday, though. Underwood showed off his rushing ability last week versus Central Michigan, exploding for 114 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby was able to exploit this versus the Huskers. Even with two bad opponents on the schedule, the Huskers have allowed 0.19 EPA per opponent rushing attempt, 11th worst in the country. Putting a defensive spy on Underwood would go a long way to limiting the damage of a mobile quarterback.

Cincinnati showed Michigan the plan for beating the Blackshirts. Nebraska has started the season with the best passing defense through three games in the 21st century. They’ll have another outstanding statistical performance if Underwood and Haynes are allowed to run unrestricted against the Huskers' front seven. Instead, the Blackshirts need to force Underwood to pass the ball in this game. Even if he has a big yardage total through the air, it'll also open up an opportunity for the Nebraska secondary to get some takeaways.

Nebraska has one of the best early down offenses in the nation. On first and second down, they average 0.25 EPA per play, ranking 9th in the country. Their average 3rd down distance is under 5 yards, which ranks in the top 5 in the country. However, this will be strength against strength, as Michigan has a 6th-ranked early down defense. Just like the Huskers' matchup with the Bearcats, the Sooners were able to convert over 50% of their third downs against the Wolverines.

Keeping Underwood on the sidelines will be advantageous for the Huskers. They can achieve this by executing long, methodical drives, such as their seven-minute touchdown drive against Cincinnati. The Huskers are currently 6th in Brian Fremeau’s metric of Net Available Yards*. This metric indicates the degree of control Nebraska has over the game.

The Nebraska passing attack is one of the best in the nation at spreading the ball around. The Huskers have a nation-leading six players with at least 80 yards receiving (along with Arkansas and Boston College). Even if Michigan can limit explosive play, the Huskers have a number of weapons that can help them move down the field and get into scoring position.

*Available yards measure the percentage of yards a team earns for its starting field position to the endzone. “Net” available yards are the difference between what its offense earns and its defense allows

Underwood is an exciting quarterback and a future star in college football. He’s got a skill set to exploit the Blackshirts’ vulnerabilities. However, he’s still a young quarterback entering a challenging environment. This should be an evenly matched game, with both teams struggling at times. However, I think Underwood makes a critical mistake while Nebraska plays clean football. I think the final scoreboard gives the Huskers a comfortable 27-17 win, in a game that’s played much tighter than the final score indicates.