Auburn vs. Baylor Prediction: Tigers Battle Bears in Week 1

Auburn-Baylor Keys to Victory

1. Jackson Arnold’s Auburn Debut
The Tigers went out of their way to set Arnold up for success. By bringing in Eric Singleton Jr. (Georgia Tech) and Horatio Fields (Wake Forest) to line up alongside Cam Coleman, Auburn assembled one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country. The same can be said of its offensive line, which added a pair of Power 4 tackles with starting experience in Mason Murphy (USC) and Xavier Chaplin (Virginia Tech). It’s clearly a better situation than Arnold was in last season at Oklahoma, where the one-time five-star recruit struggled and was ultimately benched. Perhaps Freeze, with his quarterback-friendly offense, can tap into Arnold’s potential. Arnold (0-3) is still in search of his first road win as a starter, and he’s up against a Bears defense that struggled to stop the pass and consistently surrendered big gains last season.

2. Baylor’s Usage of Bryson Washington
Washington was a revelation for the Bears last season, running for 100-plus yards on six different occasions on his way to becoming the program’s first 1,000-yard rusher since 2021. He was especially involved during Baylor’s late-season surge, finding the end zone 12 times during that six-game win streak to end the regular season. Given the season-ending foot injury to backup running back Dawson Pendergrass, Washington stands to play an even larger role in the Bears’ offense in 2025. Sawyer Robertson is established as one of the better quarterbacks in the Big 12 with wide receiver Josh Cameron entrenched as his top target, but Baylor was at its best when the passing attack was playing off its dynamic run game. Washington should find room to run against an Auburn defense, but the depth behind him is now in question with freshman running back Michael Turner potentially out for Friday’s game.

3. Questions at Kicker
Auburn finished dead last in the FBS in field-goal percentage (54.5%) in 2024, trotting out three kickers to little success. The Tigers enter 2025 with still more questions at the position as Alex McPherson is questionable for the opener and listed as the starter along with Towns McGough and Southern Miss transfer Connor Gibbs. Considering Auburn was 1-of-7 on kicks longer than 40 yards, figuring out the kicking game is important to taking the next step this season and winning on the road in Week 1. Baylor has its own questions at kicker with Connor Hawkins set to take over the starting job after Isaiah Hankins transferred to Colorado State. As a freshman, Hawkins missed his only field-goal attempt from 50 yards but went 5-for-5 on extra point attempts. The Bears and Tigers both defended the red zone well last season, so coming away with points on drives deep into enemy territory will be crucial in what’s expected to be a close contest.

Final Score Prediction: Baylor 31, Auburn 28

Both Baylor and Auburn ended 2024 on the upswing, but the Bears’ success seems more repeatable given the returning backfield of Robertson and Washington. The Tigers aren’t lacking for returning production, but some of their most noteworthy additions were at high-profile positions — namely quarterback — and it might take some time for them to gel. With a season-opening test on the road against a Power 4 opponent, that’s not a luxury the Tigers have.

ATS: Baylor +2.5
O/U: Over 57.5