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Belichick Beware:  Trap Games That Could Derail UNC’s Season
Sep 7, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Marcus Allen (29) reacts in the fourth quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Mice are among the smartest species in the animal kingdom, but they still try to nibble the cheese off the mousetrap.

North Carolina has one of the easiest schedules in the ACC.

According to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, North Carolina is 51st in strength of schedule and has a 72.7% chance of winning at least six games, which would make the team bowl eligible.

Carolina’s nonconference schedule also sets up favorably. The toughest matchup comes against TCU, which is coming off a 9-4 season, but that game will be played in Chapel Hill. The rest of the slate includes two Group of Five programs in transition—Charlotte and UCF—as well as an FCS opponent in Richmond.

UNC also gets a manageable schedule once it begins ACC play. Although the Tar Heels will play against Clemson in their first ACC game, they avoid SMU, Miami, Louisville, Georgia Tech, or Florida State.

While the schedule may not seem that daunting, it's not easy winning football games.

Here are the biggest trap games of the season for the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Sept. 20 – at UCF, TBA

UCF is in a transition period after firing Gus Malzahn following a 4-8 record in its second season in the Big 12. The Knights brought back Scott Frost, who led the program to a self-proclaimed national championship in 2017. That season, UCF went 13-0 and upset Auburn in the Peach Bowl.

Expect UCF to be better this fall — history supports that. Since 2004, the Knights have had just four losing seasons, including two winless ones. Each time, they bounced back and reached the postseason. In 2005 and 2011, UCF advanced to the Conference USA Championship Game after going 0-11 and 4-8, respectively.

UCF’s home stadium, Ascsiure Bounce House — yes, that is in fact its name — is one of the most difficult venues in college football. The Knights are 85-30 at home since the stadium opened in 2007. During their time in Conference USA and the American Athletic Conference, they hosted and won four conference championship games.

Oct. 17 – at Cal, 7:30 p.m. PT / 10:30 p.m. ET

Despite making a bowl game in each of the past two seasons, Cal has endured five consecutive losing seasons. To make matters worse, a USA Today preseason poll projected the Golden Bears to finish 16th out of 17 ACC teams.

Still, this is a classic trap game — and the reason is travel.

The distance from Chapel Hill to Berkeley, California, is more than 2,800 miles. While the game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. local time, it will feel like a 10:30 p.m. start for North Carolina. How head coach Bill Belichick prepares his team for the time shift will be worth watching.

Oct. 31 – at Syracuse, 7:30 p.m. ET

Syracuse is coming off a 10-3 season, but the Orange are expected to take a step back after the departures of quarterback Kyle McCord, running back LeQuint Allen and three of their top four receivers from the nation’s No. 1 passing offense. Wide receiver Trebor Pena was slated to return but transferred to Penn State.

Regardless, Syracuse remains a tough road environment. The JMA Wireless Dome (formerly the Carrier Dome) is among the loudest stadiums in the country. Over the past three seasons, the Orange are 16-4 at home, including wins over No. 15 NC State in 2022 along with No. 23 Georgia Tech and No. 6 Miami in 2024 — the latter of which ultimately spoiled the Hurricanes’ playoff hopes.

Nov. 15 - at Wake Forest, TBA

Wake Forest is in a transition period with Jake Dickert coming over from Washington State to be the head coach for the Demon Deacons.

North Carolina has won the last four meetings between the two longtime in-state rivals and in last year's meeting the Tar Heels defeated the Demon Deacons 31-24 on Nov. 16, 2024. However, six of the last seven meetings have been determined by a touchdown or less.

Wake Forest returns one of the best running backs in the ACC with Demond Claiborne. Claiborne rushed for 1,049 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2023.

Wake Forest's coaching staff brought in respected defensive coordinator Scottie Hazleton to fix the defense. Hazleton has coached strong units during his time at Wyoming, Kansas State and Michigan State.

The Demon Deacons also hired Rob Ezell as offensive coordinator. Ezell was the offensive play-caller and quarterbacks coach at South Alabama, where he mentored Gio Lopez. In 2024, the Jaguars ranked 18th nationally in total offense and 22nd in rushing offense — a system that could greatly benefit Claiborne.

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This article first appeared on North Carolina Tar Heels on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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