Best value bet for Georgia vs. Alabama title game

Monday marks the close of yet another very interesting college football season. COVID was less a factor than expected but there was still a lot of focus off the field thanks to a crazy coaching carousel that seemed to begin after Week 1.

Even the teams playing were not immune as Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning will be leaving the program to take over as the head coach at Oregon after the championship game. Maybe that makes a difference for the Dawgs, who have relied on a top defense all season long, but I doubt it.

Alabama has Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young at the controls of an offense that has to be feeling good after scoring 41 points against Georgia in an SEC Championship Game win. Can they have that kind of success again?  The odds are saying not likely.

Game Info:
Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)
Monday, January 10th
8:00 PM ET

ESPN
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Betting Odds (as of Saturday, January 8th)
Spread:  Georgia -2.5 (-110), Alabama +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 52.5, Under 52.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Georgia -128, Alabama +109

Best Bet:  Georgia -2.5

These teams met in the SEC title game a little more than a month ago. Georgia was undefeated heading into that game, was favored by 6 points, and was winning 10-0 before the Crimson Tide found their rhythm in the victory. That was the key to the game as the Dawgs were not able to put pressure on Young and he picked Georgia apart.

Since that time we have seen both teams win easily in their semi-final games. Alabama had little trouble against Cincinnati and Georgia more than took care of business against Michigan setting up the rematch for the Championship.

The line on this one is fascinating as apparently even the previous win over Georgia was not enough to make the books think that Alabama is the better team. This game is at a neutral site, once again, and with Georgia favored by less than a field goal, there is really good value on that side. With this number, the strong likelihood is that whoever wins the game is going to cover. That definitely makes the spread the better value than the Moneyline if you like the Georgia side. If you think Alabama won’t be denied then take the ML with them too, a FG at the gun beats you either way.

It is going to be interesting to see how/if this line moves, or doesn’t, on game day. That is when lots of recreational bettors are going to get in on the action. Some will see Alabama as an underdog and think that is just too good to be true, and others will look at Georgia and think they are getting the best team in the country at the shortest price of the season. You definitely don’t want to miss that either.

A lot of the narratives are going to be about Alabama coach Nick Saban and his mastery of big games and former assistants. Both of those are true but hard to quantify in terms of making a wager. They make for great headlines but this game is going to come down to 2 things for me. The play of the Georgia defensive line and their QB Stetson Bennett. Both had their worst games of the season in the SEC title game. That doesn’t mean they are going to come through when it matters but a season’s worth of data tells us they can be a lot better. They don’t need to play out of their minds they just have to play at the level we have seen all season long. I am very comfortable making a bet on that and Georgia as a result.

Score Prediction:

Georgia 31 - Alabama 24