Boise State vs. South Florida Prediction: Bulls Host Broncos in Week 1

Boise State-USF Keys to Victory

1. Boise State’s Offensive Identity Post-Ashton Jeanty
Without Jeanty, the reigning Mountain West champions lose 30 touchdowns and almost 3,000 total yards of production from 2024. His departure opens the door for running backs Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod (a Fresno State transfer) to make a name for themselves behind an offensive line that returns three starters. Led by left tackle Kage Casey, that group will open up rushing lanes for Gaines and Sherrod and protect Madsen, a rushing threat who took just 13 sacks last season. Madsen will be asked to do more for the Broncos on offense, and he looks ready to do so with tight end Matt Lauter and wide receiver Latrell Caples both back. Thursday’s game against an experienced secondary should be a good indicator of just how pass-happy Boise State will be in 2025.

2. Byrum Brown’s Dual-Threat Abilities
Getting Brown back was a boon for USF’s offense after a leg injury cut his 2024 season short. He excelled in 2023, racking up over 4,000 yards of offense and 37 total touchdowns. Getting back to that level of play, specifically as a passer, is essential for the Bulls to reach their offensive potential this fall. There are new pieces in place around Brown, including a revamped running back room, but wide receiver Keshaun Singleton is back, along with four starters on the offensive line. That’s good news for Brown, who has four career games with 100-plus rushing yards. He’ll have to pull out all the stops against a Boise State defense that led the nation with 55 sacks last season. 

3. Turnovers, Time of Possession Loom Large
Boise State took good care of the ball last season with just 12 turnovers (five fumbles, seven interceptions), but the Broncos weren’t very opportunistic on defense, with 16 takeaways (nine fumble recoveries, seven interceptions). Meanwhile, USF came away with 25 takeaways (13 fumble recoveries, 12 picks) and surrendered 18 (eight fumbles, 10 interceptions). Brown threw 11 picks in 2023, but he made up for it with his playmaking abilities. Madsen takes better care of the ball with just nine career interceptions, though he threw three against Penn State in the CFP. Limiting turnovers and running at a high rate saw Boise State consistently dominate the clock in 2024, while South Florida finished second-to-last in time of possession. That’s something to watch in this one, especially if the Broncos jump out to an early lead.

Final Score Prediction: Boise State 31, South Florida 23

Boise State has a talent advantage over South Florida that’s best represented in the gap between the Broncos (No. 25) and Bulls (No. 58) in Athlon’s preseason top 136. Coach Spencer Danielson’s team has the edge in the trenches, too, which is where this game between two run-first offenses will be decided. After going on the road and nearly upsetting Oregon a season ago, Boise State will get the job done at USF.

ATS: Boise State -6.5
O/U: Under 62.5