Boise State’s College Football Playoff odds plummet following South Florida loss

Tulane is now the favorite to represent the Group of Five in the CFP at +520. The Green Wave routed Big Ten opponent Northwestern 23-3 last week to open the season. 

Fellow American Conference contender Navy is also above Boise State in the CFP odds at +880, followed by South Florida (+920) and Memphis (+980).

Bulls head coach Alex Golesh called his team’s 34-7 drubbing of Boise State “a really gritty game.”

“I was really glad to see our guys respond in a positive way. It wasn’t awesome early offensively for us … and then we felt like to get going, we had to shoot the ball down the field and were able to connect on enough of them to kind of spring the offense,” Golesh said. 

The Sun Belt has two CFP contenders: James Madison (+540) and Texas State (+1800). Texas State is joining the Pac-12 next summer alongside Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State of the MWC. 

Liberty is the top contender in Conference USA with +1260 odds to reach the CFP. 

Boise State still leads the way in the CFP odds among MWC teams, followed by UNLV (+1500), Air Force (+2500), Fresno State (+3500), Colorado State (+5000) and San Diego State (+5000). 

The five highest-rated conference champions in the final CFP rankings receive automatic bids to the playoff. 

The Broncos jumped out to a 7-0 lead at South Florida but surrendered 34 unanswered points to close the game. 

“We got beat in all three phases,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said after the game. “I told our team that I’m not running from that, that happened. Offensively, defensively and special teams, we got beat.

“We just didn’t execute well in the critical moments. … Across the board, there’s critical moments that we just didn’t win. And that’s on me as a coach to look and see why.”

During the 2024 season, Boise State won a second straight MWC title and reached the CFP for the first time in program history. The Broncos fell to Penn State in a Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal. 

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