College Football Playoff Projected Bracket: Virginia's Road to the Playoffs

According to ESPN's FPI, Virginia has the third-highest odds to win the ACC, right now. UVA sits just under 16%, close behind Duke at 17% and ultimately falling way short of Miami's 56% chance. I would say these odds are fair as Duke and Miami are really the only teams that have looked more impressive than the Hoo's. I think Virginia could take down Duke on the right day, so I think their extremely close odds make sense. Interestingly enough, Virginia is projected to finish with more wins than Duke. They also have a slightly higher chance to win out the rest of the season.

Some teams that could cause Duke some issues later this season include Georgia Tech and Virginia, themselves. Depending on how the Week Ten matchup goes, Virginia could be right up there for a frontrunner for the ACC title.

College Playoff Odds

FPI also predicts each team's odds to make the College Football Playoffs. Looking at the ACC, Virginia now has the second best odds in the conference. The Hoo's 14% chance sits only behind Miami's 79%. Georgia Tech and Duke sit close behind Virginia at around 9.5%.

It is clear that Miami is strides ahead of the other teams in the ACC. As I just mentioned, Virginia and maybe Duke are the only teams that really are in arm's length of the Hurricanes. Miami has the fifth-best chance to win the national championship at 7%, behind Indiana. Quarterback Carson Beck and edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. have led UMiami to a mostly uncontested 5-0 record and a No. 2 ranking in the country.

Best Case Scenario

The best case scenario for Virginia - and it seems obvious - is to win out their schedule. Virginia's win over Florida State was one of the biggest victories of the 2025 season. UVA has exploded onto the scene, finding itself ranked 19th in the country. It is one of those seasons where a lot of eyes are on a football program that has a chance to make noise against the usual contenders. It is exactly why they expanded the playoffs in the first place.

The only teams that could cause some issues for the Cavaliers would be Cal and Duke. The rest of the schedule is incredibly in UVA's favor, considering Virginia Tech and North Carolina are clearly sputtering at the midpoint of the season. Wake Forest is not a bad team, beating the Virginia Tech team I just mentioned. Virginia will also get some help if Duke falls to a team like Georgia Tech or even Clemson. However, I just do not think they have the talent or momentum of a program like Virginia, who is really firing on all cylinders for the first time in five years.