College Football Playoff tiers: Favorites, Contenders and Dreamers ahead of Week 5

Four full weeks into the college football season and it's time to address the evolving College Football Playoff picture. With at least 1-2 notable results from most of our true contenders (except Penn State), we can better start to guess at the final 12 teams who will compete for a national title.

First, let's lay out the menu. We'll address the favorites to win the five auto-bids the CFP hands out to the five highest-rated conference champions, almost certainly the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, and then a fifth from the Group of Five conferences. Although the AAC appears very likely to provide that bid this time around. Plus, we'll name the four top at-large teams through this point in the year.

Next, we'll dive into the contenders, teams occpuying the final spots in the actual CFP field and the first left out. Last, we will list literally every single D1 football program who has a theoretical shot to still get in, no matter how absurd the premise of said program making the field may sound. Got all that? It's fine if you don't, but enjoy nonetheless...

The FAVORITES

So, we'll start with the five most likely autobids, the four major conference champions and our predicted Group of Five representative for the time being, followed by the four top at-large teams as of this moment.

ACC: Miami
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big 12: Texas Tech
SEC: Georgia
*AAC: Memphis

At-Large (1): Penn State
At-Large (2): Oklahoma
At-Large (3): Oregon
At-Large (4): Indiana

The Rationale: Like the hippie-haired early-1970s singer-songwriter Leon Russell, we have a tight rope to walk here: sometimes a team's resume doesn't reflect their true chances of making the CFP. For instance, I'd love to rank teams solely based on what they've done on the field, but then you wouldn't have Penn State in the field, and that's just not a practical way to analyze the playoff.

So, we do a bit of both: measuring results as they come vs. season-long expectation. The further we push into late-season waters, the less we'll have to rely on unsubstantial results and guesswork. For now, though, extrapolating small samples and having a blind toss at the dart board is the whole point.

That's why Texas Tech is your Big 12 favorite. The Red Raiders put on a beatdown at Utah despite losing their (very, very good) starting quarterback midway through the game. That's arguably the most impressive win of the Big 12 this season. Meanwhile, Ohio State speaks for themselves as reigning champs, Miami has three solid wins already, and Georgia is the SEC preseason favorite but now with a win at Tennessee in one of the tougher games on their rather friendly schedule.

The CONTENDERS

Here's where the fun will actually happen in mid-December, because by then, the conference champs and top at-large bids will be figured out, and the debate will center on the last 3-4 teams in and the first 2-3 who are left out. Let's remember last year's debates: Indiana and SMU earning spots over the SEC's 9-3 triumvirate of Ole Miss, South Carolina and Alabama. Surely everyone will be happy this time around :)

At-Large (5): Florida State
At-Large (6): Texas A&M
At-Large (7): LSU

First Team Out: Texas
Second Team Out: Ole Miss
Third Team Out: Iowa State

The Rationale: Indiana would rank higher after kicking the snot out of formerly-top-10 Illinois, 63-10, but their schedule seeds doubt in their CFP hopes. The Hoosiers next hit the road to face a strong Iowa team next weekend, then play Oregon in Eugene a week after that with a trip to Penn State also looming in November. With two-thirds of the season to play, and tests as tough as those, the path is still not easy for a second straight playoff berth.

Elsewhere, Texas A&M appears to have a solid win at Notre Dame, who lost to the Aggies at home and to Miami on the road both by three points, while LSU has power conference victories but not as much legitimacy in their resume thanks to the continued deterioration of Clemson. And Rocco Becht is just a guy everyone should trust at Iowa State, but TCU or BYU or ASU could easily climb up as the No. 2 in that conference (or even No. 1).

The DREAMERS

Now, we'll list every single FBS program that can still make the playoff, realistically. So, yes, Maryland and Houston are still alive, but at 1-3, Clemson probably isn't, especially if you consider that Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, SMU and Louisville are all undefeated in conference while the Tigers have 2+ losses. That's disqualifying, pretty much. But elsewhere, here is every team with a puncher's chance, at the very least, with a top five at the end.

Dreamers: Notre Dame, USC, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan St., Nebraska, Rutgers, Houston, Arizona St., Kansas, Arizona, BYU, TCU, UCF, Cincinnati, Utah, Baylor, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Louisville, California, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Mississippi St., Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, Western Kentucky, Delaware, LA Tech, New Mexico, Boise St., Utah St., Fresno St., UNLV, San Diego State, Texas St., James Madison, Old Dominion, Appalachian St.

Dreamer Top Five: Vanderbilt, BYU, USC, Tennessee, Missouri

If we didn't include your school, sorry, they either already racked up a couple of bad losses or are so unbelievably far away from winning their conference that we couldn't put them in there. Otherwise, the rest are still alive. There's nothing that winning out can't fix.