College football Week 10: Top 25 Betting Guide

This is a big number but it might not be big enough. The NW defense is much softer this season while their offense is as bad as ever. I still like Coach Fitz, but this would be a miraculous spot if he even had them competitive.

Score Prediction:  Ohio State 49 - Northwestern 7
The Buckeyes are on a business trip this weekend. Look for a focused buttoned-up performance. No look ahead just yet. 

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Texas Tech Red Raiders at TCU Horned Frogs
Spread: TCU -8
Total: 68.5

TCU did not get shafted in the rankings. If they finish as an undefeated champ of the Big 12 then I imagine they will be right there. This week against Texas Tech is their last chance to get an easy one, and thus a great chance to show some dominance. Texas Tech needs a couple of more wins to get bowl eligible but this is a tall order, even though they did catch Texas off guard earlier in the season. It is a new regime in Lubbock, yet the same old story.

The TCU offense is one of the best in the nation. I do worry about the backdoor in this spot though. There are better values even though TTU will never truly challenge. 

Score Prediction: TCU 44 - Texas Tech 27
Classic teaser spot here to bring this one through the -7. There are games I like more than this one this week. 

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North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers
Spread: North Carolina -7
Total: 61

UNC is the only team in the Coastal Division without a loss and they might have a path to the playoffs if they win out and beat an undefeated Clemson in the ACC title game. Quarterback Drake Maye has been one of the most productive at the position this season. Virginia is having a rough go under their first-year coach. The offense that was so prolific a season ago has really dried up this year. Being at home is not going to even things up enough.

This is a great line. I feel pretty confident that the Tar Heels can score more than 30 points but don't trust the Cavaliers to get into the end zone more than a couple of times. 

Score Prediction: North Carolina 38 - Virginia 20
You never want to underestimate a home underdog too much, especially in the topsy-turvy ACC but this one looks like it could be over quickly. 

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Tulane Green Wave at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Spread: Tulsa -7.5
Total: 57

Tulane is the only team that has yet to lose in AAC play (they are 4-0). They are not winning by big margins, but wins are wins. They are in good position and are the highest-ranked team in the conference. A New Year's Six bid is actually a reasonable goal at this point. Things are not as positive for Tulsa, who is probably hunting for a new coach after the season. There is nothing reliable about this Golden Hurricane team this season.

They are definitely trying to bait you with the hook on this line. It is just so tempting, especially with a home underdog. Tulane should be in control throughout.

Score Prediction: Tulane 30 - Tulsa 16
I am not a Tulane expert but there is a lot to like about this team right now. They are winning when they are supposed to. 

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Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes
Spread: Oregon -31.5
Total: 63

Oregon is another team that has a potential CFP path, though they definitely need some help. They are the only team in the Pac 12 that has not lost a league game and none of them have been close. A visit to Colorado is another chance to put up some gaudy numbers. The Buffs are a team in transition, one of several Power 5 schools that have pulled the chute on their coach already this season. They are the lowest-scoring team in the conference and that is just one of their problems. 

Oregon is the highest-scoring team in the conference so I don't think there should be much worry about them having to cover a big number. Those hooks on key numbers are never fun though.

Score Prediction: Oregon 52 - Colorado 10
I think the Buffs will be sufficiently motivated to dominate against a Colorado program that does not have much in the way of resistance.

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Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers
Spread: Penn State -14
Total: 50.5

Penn State is in a weird spot now. They are a quality team but after losses to both Michigan and Ohio State, there is nothing to really play for the rest of the way. It will be interesting to see how this group plays over the final weeks. Indiana has been in a different spot all season. Expectations have been low all season long, and so have results. They have lost five in a row but are 3-2 at home. Maybe they have one good result in them.

Teams like Penn State are the type to avoid at this point in the season. They might dominate on Saturday but I can also see a game they win 23-10, sleepwalking the whole way through.

Score Prediction: Penn State 31 - Indiana 21
I am going to take a chance with the home underdog here. This is a great teaser spot to make sure PSU needs to win by more than 2 TDs.

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Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini
Spread: Illinois -17
Total: 40.5

Michigan State has done more than just struggle to match last year, they have just been bad this season. The wheels have really come off for Mel Tucker's group. No team has given up more points in Big Ten play and only one team has scored less. Illinois is a totally different story this season. They have had one of the best defenses in the country all season long and lean on a ground game that has been very effective. They even have a path to the playoffs if they win out. 

Prior to the season, this would have definitely been a game the Illini were expected to lose. Now they are -17. That is really hard to wrap my head around. It is not crazy but a major adjustment. 

Score Prediction: Illinois 28 - Michigan State 13
I am not going to say there is value with the visitors but I am not excited to bet Illinois as a heavy favorite. 

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Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks
Spread: Pick'em
Total: 62.5

The Oklahoma State results last week were a true shock. It wasn't that they lost, but that they were shut out. That can have a lingering effect. They still have a chance in the Big 12 if they can right the ship quickly. At Kansas, they are already looking forward to hoops but this team is still a nice story, just not as nice as when they were ranked and scoring against folks. That line is telling you the market believes there is still something there though.

I was very surprised that this game was a pick'em. To me, it screams backing Ok State even if it means fading a nice story.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 45 - Kansas 31
Oklahoma State might still be a little sluggish early but they ultimately find their game.

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Syracuse Orange at Pitt Panthers
Spread: Pitt -4
Total: 48

The former Big East teams are matching up yet again and for the first time in a while, it is the Orange who looks to be the better squad. There is nothing flashy about the Orange this season. They are good at running the ball and not making many mistakes. Pitt games are a little less predictable. They held their own in a loss against Tennessee that has aged very well. They give up a lot of points though, playing against their physical defensive "type."

The Panthers might be getting too much respect in this spot and Syracuse might be back to being fairly valued after a couple of losses. 

Score Prediction: Syracuse 24 - Pitt 20
This one should be close and there is nice value with the Orange plus the points. They could definitely win outright too. 

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UCF Knights at Memphis Tigers
Spread: UCF -3.5
Total: 59

These were the top teams in the AAC before Cincinnati made its ascent. UCF is looking to close their time in the league with another title, while Memphis wouldn't mind dinging the Knights' chances, even if they don't have any of their own. UCF has the stingiest defense in the conference and that usually plays well for road success. Memphis is looking to bust up a three-game losing streak that is putting their own coach on the hot seat.

I like UCF in this spot. The gap between these programs is bigger than it has been for some time and they are not being asked to cover by a lot on Saturday though.

Score Prediction: UCF 38 - Memphis 24
UCF should cruise to a win but that -3.5 is a perfect teaser number too. 

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Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers
Spread: Alabama -13.5
Total: 57

This game is definitely being overshadowed by TENN vs UGA. Alabama is looking to "announce their presence with authority" and they should be able to do so. Their best game can still be pretty good, and while more vulnerable than usual they are still among the most talented teams in the country. LSU has a shot if QB Jayden Daniels can do a Hendon Hooker impersonation. That means using his arm and his legs and most importantly avoiding costly mistakes. He gives them a real chance.

Alabama has not rolled over good teams that could look them in the eye this season. LSU at home is no slouch though. This line is surprising.

Score Prediction: Alabama 34 - LSU 31
This was another very surprising line. I like LSU a lot and will probably check it out live to see if there are some opportunities to get on the Tigers. Maybe even to win.

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Texas Longhorns at Kansas State Wildcats
Spread: Texas -2.5
Total: 54.5

Kansas State is in second place in the Big 12 at 4-1 and Texas is one of 3 teams behind them at 3-2. That makes this an elimination game for the Longhorns. At this point of the season, it will be pretty hard to recover and make a push for the title game if they lose. Kansas State is in the driver's seat even if they are also in the enviable spot of trying to not get complacent off of one of the best games in the history of their program. They have been very stingy against Big 12 opponents. 

This is a fascinating line with K-State home underdogs even while being overvalued off the big win. Texas does some nice things at times but that is a lot of confidence to have in the Longhorns. 

Score Prediction: Kansas State 31 - Texas 26
Look for a real physical slugfest here. Both these teams like to and can run the ball effectively.

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Clemson Tigers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Spread: Clemson -3.5
Total: 44

Clemson got the benefit of the doubt in the CFP rankings and this is their chance to prove they deserve it. I am still not sold on Clemson being the fourth-best team in America, but they are very good and they have a chance to flex this weekend if they are at that level. Notre Dame won comfortably against Syracuse, a team that gave the Tigers some trouble. It is just one of those things. There is not much to read into it even with the Irish at home. 

I really like the Tigers in this spot. Their defense is elite and if they hold the Irish under 20 points this will be a very easy win. That is a likely outcome too. 

Score Prediction: Clemson 27 - Notre Dame 13
This one is going to be physical which suits Clemson just fine. Recent ND wins have not shown me much. 

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Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Spread: Michigan -26.5
Total: 44.5

Michigan felt a little slighted by the CFP Rankings but they have known all along what they have to do, beat Ohio State. This game won't help them prepare for that but it is another spot to keep fine-tuning things. Rutgers is not going to put up much of a fight based on what we have seen so far this season. They are good at slowing things down though and that is why this number is smaller than a lot of other Michigan games against lesser opponents. 

This one is all about what level of pace Michigan wants to work at. They are going to win with ease. The question is whether they score quickly or methodically with their ground-heavy attack. 

Score Prediction: Michigan 37 - Rutgers 7
I like Michigan to dominate. As long as they keep Rutgers to 10 or less they should cover. 

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Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes
Spread: Utah -17.5
Total: 67.5

Arizona has shown some progress this season and their game against USC was closer than expected. That does not mean we can expect the same thing against Utah, even though they are the team that beat the Trojans (it was so close). Utah is one of the most physical teams in the country and they tend to wear down opponents so games that were close don't always finish that way. When Utah is rolling they are as good as anyone in the Pac 12.

They are trying to get you off Utah with that hook in this spot. The Utes have not covered in their last 3 games but the number still seems fair. 

Score Prediction: Utah 45 - Arizona 21
There is not as much value with that hook but I can get past it because I think Utah wins by 20 anyway. You can bet a bad number if you feel good about the side.  

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wildcats
Spread: Wake Forest -3.5
Total: 54

Wake really let me down last week. Their offense just couldn't stop turning the ball over, so much so that it has to be an aberration, right?. I just wish I hadn't written that their offense was one of the most consistent things in the game right now. It is that offense that has them as favorites on the road. That and the fact that NC State does not pack much punch since QB Devin Leary went down for the season. They probably can't win a game where they have to score more than 20 points right now. That is a tall order to hold down Wake that way.

I am not worried about the hook here. Maybe Wake stumbles again, but if they are back in sync it won't matter. They can double up NC State.

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 38 - NC State 20
This is one of my favorite lines of the week! Perfect time to bet Wake. 

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Cal Bears at USC Trojans
Spread: USC -21.5
Total: 60.5

The Cal football program has been down for a while. The last time they were really good was when the Trojans were too. Unfortunately for Bears fans, most of the rest of the Pac 12 has more going on for it right now than they do. Especially on offense. That makes it hard for Cal to complete. In contrast, USC has ramped up its program quickly and has one of the most explosive offenses in the country led by QB Caleb Williams. 

This is another spot where the sportsbooks want to move you off a side with that hook. I am not buying it though, Cal would have to play their best game of the year to score enough to keep USC in range. 

Score Prediction: USC 49 - Cal 17
USC is going to turn it on if they can and try and grab some attention.

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UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils
Spread: UCLA -11
Total: 67

UCLA is still a little unknown to me. They are having a nice season and they have experience where it matters most, but I am still not sure what to make of them. They could dominate or struggle in this spot. Meanwhile, Arizona State has become the most unpredictable team in the league. They jettisoned the coach and since then they have had both good and bad results (beating Washington but losing to Stanford). It is impossible to read these guys right now. 

With both of these teams hard to handicap now, I think taking the points makes the most sense. ASU could even win.

Score Prediction: UCLA 33 - Arizona State 28
Look for ASU to play it super aggressively, for better or worse. There is no reason not to.