We came out on top in Week 6, but overall it’s been a pretty even season, and my record indicates that. There were plenty of misleading box scores last week, and those will be taken into account when looking at this great Week 7 slate. As usual, here are a few bets I have already made for Saturday.

Official bets (posted on X): 28-27-1

Rutgers @ Washington over 58.5

I rarely bet totals, but this is one I love. I don’t think the average college football fan is aware that Rutgers and Washington are two of the top 20 offenses in the country. The Scarlet Knights had 31 on Ohio at halftime before taking their foot off the gas, then followed that up with 45 on a stingy Miami-Ohio MAC defense. Putting up 28 points on tough defenses like Iowa and Minnesota would’ve been only a fever dream a few years ago. Despite playing some tough defenses, Rutgers’ offense ranks #1 in the nation in Quality Drives, which is a drive that goes past the opponent’s 40-yard line.

And don’t be fooled by Washington’s recent outings. This team put up big points early in the season but hit a bump in the road playing Ohio State and Maryland—who both grade out as top-15 defenses nationally. Yet, despite those two underwhelming offensive performances, it’s Jedd Fisch’s Huskies that rank #2 nationally in Quality Drives. I expect these two offenses to keep moving the chains into opponent territory like they have all season.

The travel spot for Rutgers isn’t ideal since the cross-country travel has been brutal for Big Ten teams in these two seasons, but the Knights did have a bye last week to rest up and prepare. And it’s not just the offensive numbers that are flashy in this matchup—the defensive numbers leave a lot to be desired. I mentioned both teams are the two best in the nation when it comes to driving into opponent territory, and it will only be made better that these defenses rank 98th (Washington) and 122nd (Rutgers) in allowing offensive drives into their side of the field. On paper, this is a complete mismatch that heavily favors the offenses, which should both be in rhythm given that both defenses are outside the top 100 nationally in generating pass rush. That could mean a lot of clean pockets with time to throw.

I agree with the analytics and my personal eye test that both teams should move the ball well here. And I love that Rutgers is off a bye. I would also lean toward the Washington team total over as well. I trust Fisch to scheme something up with his team back at home and hungry to put up a big number after two recent slugfests. For what it’s worth, this Rutgers defense has been reeling since announcing Moses Walker—who is arguably their best defensive player—out for the season with injury. With his loss, the Knights gave up 38 to Iowa and 31 to Minnesota. Now here comes a much better and more efficient Washington offense.

Colorado +5 vs. Iowa State

The numbers and stats won’t totally back up this pick, but I’m trusting my eyes through seven weeks of football and going to fade Iowa State again, who I still think is a bit overvalued. For starters, I’m not impressed with their résumé.

They beat a disappointing Kansas State team in Ireland (more on them later), beat up an FCS team, struggled and really should’ve lost at Arkansas State (who is toward the bottom of the Sun Belt), and beat Arizona at home when the Wildcats threw two interceptions, had two turnovers on downs, and missed a field goal. They were lucky to be in the Cincy game in the second half last week after a bogus pass interference call gave the Cyclones a touchdown and some motivation before halftime. Without that bad call, it would’ve been a 31-7 Bearcats halftime lead.

Colorado has its fair share of injuries, but as I mentioned last week, Iowa State is banged up in multiple areas. QB Rocco Becht got hurt and had to leave the game and was not 100% when he returned. Leading rusher Carson Hansen is questionable after suffering a concussion, and also questionable to play is their best receiver, Chase Sowell. That hot Cincy offense got whatever they wanted on that defense that’s missing its two best corners for the season, and Iowa State having two kickers on the injury report played a major factor—and will again this weekend.

This Colorado offense isn’t as good as Cincy’s, but I have faith they can be productive. After going through some QB turmoil early in the year, this offense has steadied with Kaidon Salter back as the full-time starter. Iowa State’s defense grades out as the worst pass rush and tackling team in the Big 12, as well as ranking poorly in limiting explosive plays. I trust the direction Colorado is moving to take advantage here.

Lastly—and I’ll harp on this again next—Colorado’s 35-21 loss @ TCU last week was extremely misleading. The Buffs played the Frogs to a draw the entire game, taking a 14-0 lead early and keeping it tied 21-21 late in the fourth quarter. The game flipped on a TCU punt that hit a Colorado player, leading to a TCU recovery and TD on a short field. Colorado was stopped on fourth down on the next drive, and TCU scored on a short field again. Without that fumble on the punt, that game likely goes into overtime. Not to mention, Colorado was -4 in turnovers in that game. Had they won in Fort Worth—which they easily could have—I think we’d be viewing this team a little differently. I was impressed with the Buffs last week, and I don’t trust Iowa State on back-to-back road games. This should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair with both offenses finding success, but I’m backing the home Buffs to steal one or two explosive plays and win this game outright. Should this come down to special teams in the end, Colorado holds a major advantage. I’d play Colorado at +3 or better.

Oregon State +3 vs. Wake Forest

After fading the winless Beavers last week, I’m backing them here and grabbing the points at home in a game that I project as a pick ’em between two even teams. This is also as good of a spot as you could ask for with an 0-6 team in what could be a trap game for Wake. Oregon State really has nothing to lose and is trying to get up off the mat after some really competitive and unfortunate losses. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is out to present itself as a player in a competitive ACC.

But we’re getting the Demon Deacons on a second consecutive road trip and going across the country to face a winless team—which is never easy (just ask Penn State). And while Wake has shown flashes lately, I’m not giving them too much credit for beating a somewhat dead Virginia Tech squad on the road. Plus, key players QB Robby Ashford and RB Demond Claiborne have suffered some knocks recently, and while they’re expected to play this weekend, they may not be at 100%. I have to imagine the most important thing for Jake Dickert and his squad is getting out of Corvallis healthy with the bulk of ACC play approaching.

Despite being 0-6, Oregon State has shown signs of life recently and has been pretty unlucky. I bet App State last week and was lucky to get to the window since Oregon State dominated the last three quarters of that game. The Beavers totaled over 100 yards more than App State and were one full yard per play better. The game really flipped with Oregon State being a whopping -3 in turnover margin! And even then, the Beavers still had a chance to win multiple times but threw not one but two fourth-quarter interceptions deep into Mountaineer territory—including one at the App State 6-yard line with a chance to take a late fourth-quarter lead. They were also stuffed on fourth down at the App State 1-yard line with just a few minutes left. It’s honestly a miracle Oregon State didn’t win that game. And it was a similar story the week prior against Houston when the Beavers blew a 14-point lead with six minutes left in a game where they were clearly the better team—Oregon State had a 97% postgame win expectancy.

A potential factor in this game is Wake Forest being one of the most penalized teams in the nation—ranking 114th in FBS in penalties—while Oregon State is among the least penalized—ranking 6th in the nation. This could be emphasized on the road in what could be a sneaky tough environment. Speaking to Oregon State being undervalued, the Beavers have played one of the tougher schedules in the nation, ranking 17th in Sagarin’s strength of schedule. Wake Forest, however, ranks 92nd. Sure, the Beavs are winless, but they’ve been really competitive and could easily be 3-3 against a really tough schedule. They’ll piece it all together this week in a spot that begs for their first win of the season.

Kansas State +1.5 vs. TCU

Through the first few weeks of the season, Kansas State was in the running for most disappointing team in America. A program expecting to contend for a conference championship was 1-3 with a comeback win against FCS North Dakota and a home loss to Army. But after a Week 4 bye, K-State has come out looking like an entirely different team.

Against UCF and Baylor, QB Avery Johnson played arguably the best games of his career. So has his offensive line, which has kept him clean and opened up massive holes for the running game. K-State’s 34-20 win vs. UCF doesn’t tell the whole story. The Wildcats opened the game throwing an interception followed by a turnover on downs, both around the UCF 30-yard line. Eventually, they turned those possessions into points, but they moved it easily as they had seven drives cross the UCF 40-yard line in the first three quarters alone. It was a performance worthy of 45+ points and was overall a dominant win where they were never in any danger.

Then in Waco, Johnson played an almost flawless game, which set his team up with a two-touchdown lead late in the game. However, his one mistake—a fourth-quarter pick-six—put Baylor back in the game, and the Bears blocked a late-game field goal attempt to win what was a true coin-flip game. It could really be a two-game win streak, but the important thing is that KSU is playing with confidence and the quality of play is where it was expected to be when they were being picked preseason to win the conference.

I already mentioned that TCU’s 35-21 win against Colorado last week was a bit fraudulent. The Frogs were lucky to come away with a win as a two-touchdown home favorite, thanks to a +4 turnover margin. This is now two games in a row where TCU has been part of a misleading final score. Two weeks ago in Tempe, Arizona State won on a last-second field goal, yet they outgained the Frogs by 200+ yards. That game was close mainly because of Arizona State miscues like a missed field goal, a red zone fumble, and a turnover on downs at the TCU 3-yard line. Outside of those few mistakes, Arizona State was the much better team and deserved a bigger win. TCU is getting a lot of love as a Big 12 sleeper, but recent results and performances have me skeptical.

Meanwhile, I like this Kansas State trajectory, and it’s clear they were desperate for a bye week. This team is playing at a different level than what we saw the first few weeks. The offense is finding its groove, led by a QB and O-line in great form, and they should have success against a TCU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in allowing quality drives. It helps that K-State is a very disciplined group that rarely commits penalties—ranking in the top ten. TCU ranks outside the top 100 when it comes to penalties, which is not ideal going on the road in conference play. It’s worth noting K-State wants to play at a slower tempo and control time of possession, therefore wearing down the defense and keeping the opposing QB on the sidelines. It’s a recipe that worked well last weekend @ Baylor.

TCU is overrated, and I’m backing K-State here, who has been unlucky to lose four one-possession games this season. I think we see some positive close-game regression benefit the home team. For what it’s worth, K-State coach Chris Klieman is 5-1 against TCU during his tenure in Manhattan. His one loss came in 2022 when K-State went on the road and took a commanding 28-10 lead against the Frogs, only to lose because QB Will Howard got knocked out of the game. However, they turned around and beat TCU in the Big 12 Championship before TCU went to the National Championship.

Old Dominion -14 @ Marshall

ODU has quietly risen to be one of the better G5 teams this year, and I think they’re live to win the Sun Belt. That will be figured out next week in a massive showdown with JMU. The Monarchs are clicking on both sides of the ball. I bet over 5.5 wins with ODU, and my reasoning was sound, as the return of several key contributors has paid off. Colton Joseph became the starting QB during the back half of last season and showed he was the best QB on the roster, and he’s having a stellar year as QB1 in 2025.

This offense has been consistently productive in each game this season. They scored 54 points on NC Central, then went to Blacksburg and put up 45 on Virginia Tech—causing the Hokies to fire Brent Pry immediately after. There was also a 47-point effort against Sun Belt foe Coastal Carolina. Despite only scoring 21 on Liberty, ODU outgained the Flames 489 to 210 in total yards. They also had 6.9 yards per play and 14 more first downs than Liberty. The Monarchs moved the ball easily all day long, and if it wasn’t for four turnovers, they likely would’ve eclipsed 35 or 40 points.

The defense has also been one of the best in the G5, giving up 6 points to NC Central and a combined 14 points total the last two weeks vs. Coastal and Liberty. Even in their game at Virginia Tech, the Monarchs had a 45-13 fourth-quarter lead before giving up two late garbage-time touchdowns. Their 27-14 loss at Indiana looks much more impressive now, as Indiana has been lighting teams up. ODU played a tight, competitive game with the Hoosiers, who could be playoff-bound again.

Meanwhile, Marshall had a roster totally decimated after winning the Sun Belt last year and enters Week 7 as one of the worst teams in the country. They were blown out by Georgia, then lost as a 10-point favorite to Missouri State, who just moved up from the FCS level. Most recently, the Herd lost to Louisiana-Lafayette—a loss that wouldn’t have been bad before the season, but the Cajuns have been decimated by injuries, including at QB, and have been really poor. Marshall’s only wins have been FCS Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee—one of the worst teams in Conference USA (who just lost at home to Missouri State’s freshman backup QB).

This is a massive jump up in class with how ODU is playing recently. Usually, I would be wary of ODU looking ahead to a huge game with JMU, but Marshall is truly just that bad, and ODU is in a groove. I struggle to see how Marshall moves the ball enough on this great ODU defense to keep up with the Monarchs’ scoring. Marshall is not going to win in a shootout against this team, and should it stay lower scoring, I don’t see this ODU defense breaking down. I’m going to lay the points with ODU, who I really think could become a playoff contender over the next few weeks. For what it’s worth, ODU has had no problems going on the road this season, with a competitive 27-14 loss @ Indiana and a 45-26 win @ Virginia Tech.

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