College Football's Playoff Future Is a Mess No Matter What Happens Next

Even Kiffin’s preferred format of the best 16 teams, no automatic bids, make the playoff has an obvious flaw that he acknowledged himself.

“I don’t know exactly how (the 16 best teams) gets figured out,” Kiffin said. Frankly, that’s a flaw in every playoff format and how last year’s playoff committee came to the decisions it made is why we’re already talking about changes to the playoff. Some of those changes have already been made with the change to straight-seeding for next season’s 12-team playoff. More changes will come in 2026.

In all these discussions and debates, there’s an important element to keep in the back of your mind. The SEC just set records for teams from one conference going to the men’s basketball, softball and baseball NCAA Tournaments. The Big Ten had more team in last year’s CFP.

Florida AD Scott Stricklin, while talking about a possible ninth conference game, said that part out loud.

“There's not a sport that our league competes in where less than half of our members are not in the postseason except for one, and it happens to be the one we all pay the most attention to,” Stricklin said. “Last year three of our 16 teams were in the playoff. I think that's a problem systemically with the structure of what we're trying to do.”

Under the two most discussed playoff formats, the SEC could have up to seven in the 4+4+2+2+1+3 format and 12 in the 5+11 (or as little as one if the SEC has an off year). It’ll be hard to get half the conference into the playoff and 5+11 format is the only to do that.

But if the SEC has four automatic bids then it can hold play-in games that’d look something like this:

No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the SEC standings play for a conference championship, but both are guaranteed spots in the playoff. Then you have No. 3 and No. 6 faceoff in a game for one of the last two bids and No. 4 and No. 5 play for the other.

It gives more teams more hope later in the season, but most important of all, it’s two more games to sell TV rights to and would see the SEC add a ninth conference that could fetch an extra $50-80 million.

But you see the flaw in that right? The conference championship game is meaningless. Who cares who wins the SEC title when the loser knows they’ll be in the playoff and the winner isn’t even guaranteed a first round bye? Would Texas even start Arch Manning in a game like that?

At this point, we might as well just sit back and watch all of this unfold with the knowledge that whatever is decided is going to have flaws. And there’ll be people pointing out those flaws.

Really, what’s needed is an example of something that has worked out. Like a college football playoff that’s been around for decades without the need for too-many changes.

If. Only.

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