Did Boise State outplay South Florida in 27-point loss? One advanced metric says so

Boise State was one of seven teams to suffer a loss despite having a higher net success rate per play. The gulf between the Broncos and Bulls was the highest of the group. 

The other six teams to win the net success rate battle but lose were Texas vs. Ohio State, Cincinnati vs. Nebraska, Oregon State vs. California, UTEP vs. Utah State, Kansas State vs. Iowa State and Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina. 

Fleming explained net success rate in a post on X. 

“All net success rate does is strip out some noise and present a view of how two teams compared in the down-to-down business of moving the football,” Fleming wrote. “Games are won and lost with explosives, special teams, turnovers, etc., and looking at net success rate just shows us how close the margins were. It’s a good diagnostic to go back and look at a game and learn something.”

When asked if he felt Boise State’s offense performed better against South Florida than the final score indicates, head coach Spencer Danielson quickly shot it down. 

“I think stats are for losers,” Danielson said during Monday’s press conference. “To me, looking at that runs from the truth where we got beat 34-7 and we played with a lack of effort and a lack of mentality. We have to get that fixed. 

“If you lose the turnover margin … and you lose the explosive play battle — which wasn’t even close — you lose 99 percent of the time. That is football. You can look at all the stats. Red zone touchdowns, yes they matter. Third downs matter, fourth downs matter. But if you just look at those two stats, you lose those football games. And we lost that.”