Early Big 12 Football Predictions for 2026

1. Texas Tech
Repeating as the champion in a conference that’s as wide open as any in college football isn’t going to be easy. However, the Red Raiders reloaded in a big way through the transfer portal and should be the preseason favorite in the Big 12. Coach Joey McGuire landed arguably the top signal-caller in the portal (Brendan Sorsby) and added plenty of help to restock a defensive front losing standouts in David Bailey and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. 

2. BYU
Quarterback Bear Bachmeier should be even better in his second season in Provo, and the offense got a big-time boost with running back LJ Martin passing on the NFL. A defense that limited opponents to 19.1 points a contest has a new coordinator with Kelly Poppinga taking over after Jay Hill departed to Michigan. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker and safety Faletau Satuala headline the list of returners on a standout defense for coach Kalani Sitake.

3. Utah
It’s a new era at Utah with Morgan Scalley taking over as the program’s head coach after Kyle Whittingham’s departure. The Utes return two dynamic quarterbacks in Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin, along with running back Wayshawn Parker (981 yards in ‘25), to lead a prolific rushing attack. A revamped offensive line is the biggest concern for Scalley and new coordinator Kevin McGiven. Scalley should keep this defense near the top of the Big 12. However, there are some key cogs to replace, including end John Henry Daley, cornerback Smith Snowden, and lineman Logan Fano. 

4. Houston
The Cougars showed marked improvement in 2025, finishing 10-3 in coach Willie Fritz’s second season in charge after a 4-8 mark the previous year. Quarterback Conner Weigman (261.9 total yards a game) is back after a standout debut in Houston, with receiver Amare Thomas (67 catches) headlining a collection of solid skill talent. A defense that limited opponents to 22.8 points a contest in ‘25 will miss standouts Carlos Allen and Eddie Walls III in the trenches. 

5. Arizona
Brent Brennan’s second squad in Tucson showed marked improvement after going 4-8 in ‘24. The Wildcats finished 9-4, with three of those defeats - including close losses to BYU and Houston - coming by one score. Quarterback Noah Fifita is back after earning first-team All-Big 12 honors last year, but his supporting cast and offensive line is under renovation. The defense showed marked improvement under coordinator Danny Gonzales in ‘25 and should be solid once again if the new faces in the secondary fall into place.

6. Arizona State
The Sun Devils are losing a couple of key contributors - quarterback Sam Leavitt, running back Raleek Brown, and receiver Jordyn Tyson - but coach Kenny Dillingham will keep this team in the mix to win the Big 12. Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley is expected to start under center, while additional help for both sides of the ball is coming from the portal. 

7. TCU
After back-to-back nine-win seasons, the Horned Frogs have work to do in order to push for a Big 12 title in ‘26. Harvard transfer Jaden Craig will replace Josh Hoover under center, while running back Jeremy Payne (623 yards) and receiver Jordan Dwyer (54 catches) are back to headline the skill talent. Reloading the linebacker and secondary groups top the list of priorities for coordinator Andy Avalos. 

8. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State should be the most-improved team in the Big 12 next season. New coach Eric Morris is one of the top hires in the 2025-26 carousel and brought several players from North Texas to Stillwater to help in the turnaround effort. Included in the transfer haul are standouts in quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. Rising star coordinator Skyler Cassity was a solid pick to improve a defense that allowed 33.3 points a game last season.

9. Kansas State
K-State had expectations of contending for a Big 12 title in ‘25 but fell way short with a 6-6 mark. A slow start after a loss to Iowa State in Ireland, along with a couple of injuries, played a significant role in the six-win campaign. Former Wildcats’ quarterback and new coach Collin Klein inherits a talented signal-caller in Avery Johnson to build around and top receiver Jaron Tibbs (47 receptions) is also back. New coordinator Jordan Peterson has several holes to fill on defense, as linebackers Austin Romaine and Desmond Purcell have departed, and linemen Tobi Osunsanmi and Ryan Davis transferred. 

10. West Virginia
Expect coach Rich Rodriguez’s second team in Morgantown to take a step forward after a 4-8 mark last year. The Mountaineers were aggressive in the portal to pursue upgrades on both sides of the ball, a haul that included quarterback Michael Hawkins (Oklahoma) and running back Cam Cook (Jacksonville State). Better play at quarterback and along the offensive line would go a long way towards lifting West Virginia back into the postseason. 

• Related: Early Heisman Contenders for 2026

11. Baylor
Coach Dave Aranda enters ‘26 squarely on the hot seat after a 5-7 record last year. However, the Bears have a chance to get back to a bowl next season thanks to an intriguing transfer portal haul that includes former Florida signal-caller DJ Lagway. Talent isn’t an issue for Lagway and injuries hindered his play last year. If coordinator Jake Spavital can get the most out of Lagway, an offense that averaged 31.1 points a contest in ‘25 won’t miss a beat. Aranda’s defense gave up 32.6 points a game last year and is a major concern entering this fall. 

12. Kansas
Can coach Lance Leipold get Kansas back on track? The Jayhawks have missed out on a bowl in each of the last two years and must replace standout quarterback Jalon Daniels. Kansas State running back transfer Dylan Edwards is an intriguing pickup from the portal, with new additions in Nik McMillan (Buffalo) and Nahzae Cox (Middle Tennessee) coming in to help at receiver. KU’s defense gave up 29.4 points a game in Big 12 contests last year and needs to take a step forward in coordinator DK McDonald’s second season to help get this team back into a bowl.

13. Colorado
As expected without Heisman winner Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders, the Buffaloes took a step back last season. After going 9-4 in ‘24, Colorado slipped to 3-9 last year. With a large transfer portal class on the way, coach Deion Sanders aims to quickly get the program back on track. New coordinator Brennan Marion is one of the top assistant hires of this cycle, and redshirt freshman quarterback Julian Lewis has plenty of promise in the scheme. Left tackle Jordan Seaton’s transfer to LSU was a significant setback for the offensive line. And on the defense, the Buffaloes have plenty of room to improve after allowing 30.5 points a contest last year (up from 23.1 in ‘24).

14. Cincinnati
A promising 7-1 start last year quickly eroded with a five-game losing streak. The Bearcats enter ‘26 with several question marks, which only adds pressure to the hot seat under coach Scott Satterfield. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby transferred to Texas Tech, and the skill spots are undergoing significant turnover. However, the offensive line should be a strength with Joe Cotton, Taron Tyo, and Evan Tengesdahl returning. Nate Woody replaces Tyson Veidt as defensive coordinator.

15. Iowa State
Iowa State moved quickly to hire Jimmy Rogers from Washington State after Matt Campbell’s departure to Penn State. However, Rogers has a tough assignment ahead for his debut in Ames. The Cyclones lost a handful of key players to transfer to Happy Valley, including quarterback Rocco Becht. Rogers countered by landing over 40 transfers to help both sides of the ball on a roster navigating major transition. Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor could replace Becht under center.

16. UCF
The Knights (5-7) just missed a bowl in coach Scott Frost’s return to Orlando last year. Of UCF’s seven losses, three came by nine points or less, including a 30-27 defeat to Houston. James Madison transfer quarterback Alonza Barnett III should be a great fit for Frost’s offense and provide a spark for an offense that managed only 24.3 points a game last year. Louisville transfer Duke Watson is also a key pickup from the portal to help the ground attack. Frost also brought in a handful of transfers to build depth and improve the defense.