ESPN FPI predicts Utah's chances of making 2026 College Football Playoff

After power conference leaders proposed a 16-team format for college football's postseason, concerns started to arise about whether there would be enough bids for the Big 12 to send more than just one of its teams to the playoffs.

Instead of pushing back against the Big Ten and SEC's wishes, Utah Athletics Director Mark Harlan issued challenged to the rest of the Big 12: win more games.

"I think the public and we agree that you have to win this thing on the field," Harlan said to The Athletic's Chris Vannini regarding the College Football Playoff.

Based on the premature playoff projections ESPN released this week, the Big 12 would be wise to heed Harlan's words.

According to the first College Football Power Index for the upcoming 2025-26 campaign, only one Big 12 school has better than a 15% chance of making the playoffs next year (Kansas State, 22.2%). The Wildcats were behind 16 other teams that had better odds of qualifying for the postseason, including the Mountain West's Boise State and the American Athletic Conference's Tulane.

The College Football Playoff is set to move to a straight-seeding model for the 2025-26 postseason; which means instead of having auto-byes for conference champions, teams will be seeded No. 1-12 according to their ranking, with the top four seeds earning a bye into the quarterfinals.

Utah, coming off an injury-plagued 2024 season, checked in at No. 46 overall in ESPN's updated FPI. After going 5-7 in their first year as part of the Big 12, ESPN projected the Utes will finish closer to .500 once again in 2025, putting their playoff odds at just 3.7% and their chances of winning the conference title at 3.1%.

Utah fans will expect more results in 2025 following the additions of offensive coordinator Jason Beck and New Mexico transfer quarterback Devon Dampier. However only time will tell how the Utes' offseason acquisitions come together in the regular season, which is a little than three months away from kicking off with a matchup against UCLA set for Aug. 30 at the Rose Bowl.

Here's a look at the rest of the Big 12's chances of making the College Football Playoff, as well as their projected record, strength of schedule rating and more.

Big 12 rankings in ESPN's FPI

Kansas State Wildcats

• National rank: No. 21
• Projected record: 8.6-3.7
• Strength of schedule rank: 64th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 19.9%
• Chance of making CFP: 22.2%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.4%

Arizona State Sun Devils

• National rank: No. 24
• Projected record: 8.3-3.9
• Strength of schedule rank: 73rd
• Chance of winning Big 12: 13.0%
• Chance of making CFP: 16.1%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.2%

BYU Cougars

• National rank: No. 29
• Projected record: 8.0-4.2
• Strength of schedule rank: 74th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 10.4%
• Chance of making CFP: 12.6%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.1%

Kansas Jayhawks

• National rank: No. 30
• Projected record: 7.9-4.3
• Strength of schedule rank: 60th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 11.3%
• Chance of making CFP: 13.4%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.6%

TCU Horned Frogs

• National rank: No. 32
• Projected record: 7.2-5.0
• Strength of schedule rank: 48th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 8.5%
• Chance of making CFP: 10.3%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.2%

Baylor Bears

• National rank: No. 33
• Projected record: 7.2-5.0
• Strength of schedule rank: 50th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 10.3%
• Chance of making CFP: 10.5%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.2%

Texas Tech Red Raiders

• National rank: No. 35
• Projected record: 7.9-4.2
• Strength of schedule rank: 69th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 7.8%
• Chance of making CFP: 10.3%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.1%

UCF Knights

• National rank: No. 37
• Projected record: 7.9-4.2
• Strength of schedule rank: 57th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 4.7%
• Chance of making CFP: 6.8%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.1%

Iowa State Cyclones

• National rank: No. 45
• Projected record: 6.7-5.4
• Strength of schedule rank: 59th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 3.7%
• Chance of making CFP: 4.4%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.0%

Utah Utes

• National rank: No. 46
• Projected record: 6.4-5.6
• Strength of schedule rank: 58th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 3.1%
• Chance of making CFP: 3.7%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.0%

Colorado Buffaloes

• National rank: No. 49
• Projected record: 6.5-5.5
• Strength of schedule rank: 67th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 2.4%
• Chance of making CFP: 3.1%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.0%

Cincinnati Bearcats

• National rank: No. 53
• Projected record: 6.4-5.7
• Strength of schedule rank: 63rd
• Chance of winning Big 12: 2.8%
• Chance of making CFP: 3.1%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.0%

West Virginia Mountaineers

• National rank: No. 66
• Projected record: 5.2-6.9
• Strength of schedule rank: 55th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 0.6%
• Chance of making CFP: 0.8%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.0%

Oklahoma State Cowboys

• National rank: No. 67
• Projected record: 5.5-6.6
• Strength of schedule rank: 39th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 0.9%
• Chance of making CFP: 0.9%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.0%

Arizona Wildcats

• National rank: No. 69
• Projected record: 4.9-7.1
• Strength of schedule rank: 65th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 0.5%
• Chance of making CFP: 0.5%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.0%

Houston Cougars

• National rank: No. 75
• Projected record: 4.8-7.2
• Strength of schedule rank: 75th
• Chance of winning Big 12: 0.2%
• Chance of making CFP: 0.3%
• Chance of winning national championship: 0.0%