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ESPN SP+ Computer Model Projects Top Five College Football Upset in Week 3

Originally posted on Athlon Sports
By Kevin Matthew Borba | Last updated Sep 8, 2025 5:15 PM ET

After a Week 2 college football slate that featured just one game between ranked opponents, Week 3's slate will come on a bit stronger with three.

However, of the three games, the matchup between the No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs and No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers is the one that has drawn the most buzz. The SEC rivals have played one another every year since 1992, with their first meeting coming in 1899.

While ESPN BET has the Bulldogs as 3.5-point favorites despite making the trip to Knoxville, ESPN's SP+ model sees things going differently. Created by Bill Connelly in 2008, the SP+ is a tempo-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that also factors in the opponents.

As shared to social media on Monday, Connelly's model has the Volunteers pulling off a 25-24 upset win, which would mark the first time since 2016 that Tennessee has beaten Georgia.

WEEK 3 SP+ PICKS

GT 28.2, Clemson 27.7?
Vols 25, Dawgs 24??
Irish 28, Aggies 25
LSU 28, Florida 25
Bama 33, Wisconsin 16
Pitt 30, WVU 26
Miami 38, USF 24
SC 30, Vandy 21

Not as many disagreements this week. Clemson aside, anyway. Full list: https://t.co/7pOK9K2Aj8 pic.twitter.com/ZlruRlTHTs
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 7, 2025

The model also gives Tennessee a 53% chance of winning, which would undoubtedly be a signature win for Josh Heupel and company after the offseason they had.

Coming off a 2024 season that saw the Vols make the College Football Playoff, starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava essentially tried to strong-arm the program into paying him $4 million this season. Tennessee ultimately let him walk, as he's now at UCLA, while the team brought in former App State and UCLA quarterback Joey Aguilar.

While many thought there'd be a drop-off, Aguilar has thrived in the team's two wins, throwing for 535 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions, with Tennessee outscoring its opponents 117-43.

As for Georgia, they haven't looked nearly as dominant this season, with the team's latest win coming against FCS program Austin Peay, who they beat 28-6. While they controlled the game, there were certainly moments they'd love to have back, and head coach Kirby Smart made it clear that it's unknown if they are ready for SEC play.

“We'll find out,” Smart said via ESPN. “That's for sure. If you haven't been on the road and your first game on the road is in the SEC, it's always an adventure.”

The battle is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and will air on ABC.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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