ESPN's Football Power Index Likes Auburn Tigers

The Auburn Tigers underachieved in 2024. Few are going to argue that point.

Still, it's also true that the roster from top to bottom was not up to the standards that have seen Auburn as one of the top 15 programs this century.

Third-year head coach Hugh Freeze has worked fervently to upgrade the talent on a roster that was left looking bleak by his predecessor. Even in an incomplete first class, Freeze was able to bring in Keldric Faulk who is being projected as a top 10 pick in next year's draft.

He followed up with two top-10 classes and has also done well recruiting the transfer portal. No single player is more important to the 2025 version of the Tigers than transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold, who had five stars next to his name coming out of high school.

June is the time for prognostication, and ESPN released the first version of its Football Power Index (FPI). ESPN claims the FPI is the best predictor of a college football team's season.

If that's the case, Auburn is headed in the right direction after four straight seven-loss seasons. The FPI has Auburn at No. 14 heading into the summer. If there's a downside to being 14th, it's that Auburn is 8th in the SEC.

The bright side in this massive new SEC is that Auburn only has three of those teams on its schedule: Georgia (2), Alabama (4), and Texas A&M (11).

"If we're looking for somewhat refreshed entries after down seasons, Auburn, Michigan, and Oklahoma are all among the 17 most likely champions after each finished outside the top 25 in the FPI last season," wrote Neil Paine on ESPN. "All three made major moves in the offseason to spark their surges: Auburn brought in a top-10 transfer class headlined by former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold."

The FPI likes the balance the Tigers have. The offense comes in at No. 16, up 31 spots from where they finished last year (the biggest jump in the top 20). The defense is up 13 spots to No. 13.

Ill-timed turnovers, mental mistakes, and a poor kicking game doomed Auburn in close games last year. Some of those aspects can't be accounted for when looking at a depth chart, but a simpler approach on offense and a healthy kicker should alleviate some of the concerns.

Yes, the Tigers look better on paper, but Freeze and his staff need to make sure they're not paper tigers this fall.