Five Bold Predictions for BYU Football's Season Opener

In the Kalani Sitake era, 8-win BYU teams outgained its FCS opponents by exactly 300 yards per contest compared to just 102 yards in seasons where they win less than 8. We will give some grace for an offense breaking in a new QB, but fans should expect BYU’s defense to give up fewer than 275 total yards to a Portland State offense this poor. Last week, PSU gained 277 total yards against fellow FCS foe Tarleton State. A team with BYU’s defensive bodies should more than dominate an FCS team that is expecting to play three quarterbacks.

2. BYU will average at least 7.5 yards per play on offense

BYU averages 7.8 YPP in 8+ win seasons compared to 5.5 YPP in all others. Portland State allowed 7.2 to Tarleton State las week which feels like the clear bar for BYU to clear if we expect them to have a decent offense this year. That can look like a few different things in practice, but ideally BYU will average at least 5.5 yards per rush with a few breakaway runs thanks to far superior BYU offensive line and a potential all Big 12 running back. What BYU’s passing attack will look like is a mystery with a true freshman QB, but Bachmeier demonstrated the ability to throw the deep ball throughout fall camp. His average yards per attempt by the time the clock strikes zero will shock some people.

3. BYU’s defense records at least 3 sacks and allows under 3.5 yards per carry

For BYU to reach its goals this season, they need stronger defensive line play. There are a myriad of new faces on that front, but the raw talent is as good as BYU has had in a long time. PSU rushed for 3.7 yards per carry last week but gave up zero sacks. If BYU’s defense is as good as fans expect, BYU’s defense should exceed that if they are as good as advertised. Three different Cougars record a sack as BYU’s speed at linebacker overwhelms the Viking run game.

4. Bachmeier finishes with above 66.7% completion percentage

Ideally, Bachmeier gets a healthy dose of short to intermediate throws to build his confidence. That means a high completion percentage, especially with completion machines like Carsen Ryan and Chase Roberts. BYU tends to air it out more than you would expect against FCS opponents and with BYU’s receiving corps, there should be open receivers on nearly every play. Bear Bachmeier’s accuracy from the pocket will be on full display as his completions double his incompletions.

5. BYU covers the 43.5 spread

This feels like a huge number, especially when Kalani Sitake refuses to run up scores, but candidly, BYU won’t need to run up the score to cover this spread. Portland State lost 42-0 last week and could do nothing on offense against a team much less talented than this BYU team. In fact, SP+ is even more bullish on BYU, predicting a 55-point win before even knowing what the QB play will look like. BYU is just too big, strong, and fast for this one to still be a game at halftime. BYU wins going away as BYU’s third team gets reps for the final quarter and a half of play.

Prediction

BYU 49-3 PSU