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Fresno State vs Northern Illinois Prediction, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Preview & Odds

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Dec 19, 2024 3:14 PM ET

Both teams will bring the fight, both teams will come up with the effort, and both teams will be very, very .... not cold? (In a huge upset, the weather for Boise in late December is supposed to be rather lovely.)

Fresno State was supposed to be far more into the Mountain West title chase under head coach Tim Skipper, but he couldn’t keep the Jeff Tedford era rolling, the team lost four of its last five games, and this is the last game before the Matt Entz era starts.

Skipper is still here for this, and he’s looking to add to Fresno State’s streak of five straight bowl wins going back to 2014.

Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame. That’s it, that’s the season, that’s the claim to fame. It sputtered and coughed from then on - it lost to Buffalo the following week - but it had a moment. A miserable bowl program for years, it lost seven straight and ten of 12 before getting by Arkansas State in last year’s controversial Camellia Bowl.

One of those two wins, though, was over Fresno State in a 40-17 2010 Humanitarian Bowl - now called the Famous Idaho Potato - thumping.

Fresno State vs Northern Illinois: How to Watch the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Game Preview

Date: Monday, December 23, 2024
Game Time: 2:30 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN
Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Teams: Northern Illinois (7-5), Fresno State (6-6)
Fiu Bluesky | CFN Bluesky | CFN X | CFN FB
- Bowl Schedule, Scoreboard, Predictions

Why Fresno State Will Win

Northern Illinois is missing at least six starters and a slew of other key contributors. QB Ethan Hampton is now with Wake Forest, the defensive line took a massive hit, and the secondary lost big-hitting safety Santana Banner to Missouri along with a few other key guys.

Even with Hampton this wasn’t the most efficient NIU passing game, the defense that was so good at generating pressure will probably be missing almost everyone who was disruptive, and Fresno State needs to take advantage by pounding away. The Bulldogs lost a ton of talent, but the O line should be relatively intact.

However …

Why Northern Illinois Will Win

Fresno State is missing SO MANY parts.

QB Mikey Keene and almost all of the top receivers are gone. The secondary is hit hard, the defensive line doesn’t have the guys on the inside, and worst of all, the one area that should be okay is one of the team's biggest weaknesses.

The Bulldogs don’t have a running game. They’re struggling to average 3.3 yards per carry, they only hit the 200-yard rushing mark once, so as long as the Northern Illinois defense can hold down RB Gavin Williams, things will stall.

And that’s the other key here. The Huskies offensive front should be relatively intact. The formula will be simple. Keep handing the ball off, bash away on the inexperienced Fresno State interior, repeat.

Fresno State vs Northern Illinois: Who Will Win?

If all things were even this would be Fresno State’s game, but its lost parts are bigger than NIU’s. Again, the idea here is for the Huskies to run and keep running.

Fresno State, even with its backups, should be good enough to pull this off with a few breaks, but it just doesn’t run well enough to pull this off. Time of possession here will mean everything. Northern Illinois needs to have the ball for almost 35 minutes, and it will.