Sep 28, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell during the game between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Florida State Seminoles at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

FSU football falls in ESPN's final preseason SP+ rankings

Originally posted on Florida State Seminoles on SI
By Jackson Bakich | Last updated Aug 16, 2025 7:00 AM ET

The Florida State Seminoles have fallen slightly in Bill Connelly's (of ESPN) latest SP+ rankings, moving from the 36th spot to the 39th spot.

According to Connelly, SP+ is a "tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football ... these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."

Notable teams on the list include FSU's first opponent of the year, Alabama (#2), as well as Notre Dame (#6), and conference foes in Clemson (#10), Miami (#14), SMU (#19), Louisville (#24), Georgia Tech (#41) Virginia Tech (#42), Duke (#43), NC State (#46), and North Carolina (#53).

In-state rival Florida comes in at No. 16.

What Will Florida State Need To Do In Order To Rise Up The Ranks?

It's pretty simple: The Florida State Seminoles will need to win to rise up the rankings.

After a 2-10 season in 2024, transfer quarterback Thomas Castellanos will need to right the ship under the new offensive coordinator, Gus Malzahn, and the defense will need to fix its severe run defense woes under new defensive coordinator, Tony White.

Malzahn likes to run an up-tempo, quick offense that keeps defenses on their toes, but simultaneously necessitates an efficient ground game. The former Auburn and UCF head coach had great success with quarterbacks who could also run, including Nick Marshall at Auburn.

Castellanos fits that mold.

With the final AP Poll top-25 rankings in mind, should the Garnet and Gold maintain a win-loss record that trends upward against what is predicted (by Connelly) to be a top-30 strength of schedule, the 'Noles could find themselves in a much better position than they find themselves according to the recent SP+ rankings.

In 2025, FSU will face Alabama, Clemson, Miami, and Florida among eight other opponents in the regular season. The four aforementioned teams all rank above the Seminoles in the SP+ rankings, and two of those games will be on the road (Clemson and Florida).

Florida State's 2025 campaign begins with a showdown against the Crimson Tide on Aug. 30 at 3:30 p.m. ET in Tallahassee.