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Houston vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Game Preview

Kevin Neri/Statesman Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Houston vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Game Preview

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Steven Lassan | Last updated Sep 18, 2026 7:30 AM ET

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Texas Tech hosts Houston in a critical Big 12 showdown on Friday night for Week 3 in the 2026 college football season. Both the Red Raiders and Cougars were projected as two of the Big 12 title frontrunners this preseason and have met expectations with a 2-0 start. This game will be crucial to establish how these teams stack up with Utah, BYU and Arizona atop the conference pecking order.

Texas Tech opened ‘26 with a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian. Coach Joey McGuire’s team followed that victory up with a close call in Corvallis last Saturday. The Red Raiders needed a couple of late scores to beat Oregon State 35-24. With several key players departing off last year’s team that made the College Football Playoff, it’s clear Texas Tech is a work in progress. However, McGuire’s team still has all of the pieces in place for another run at the conference title and a spot in the playoff.

Houston handled Oregon State 33-20 in Week 1, followed by an easy victory over Southern 77-6 last Saturday. The Cougars finished 4-8 in coach Willie Fritz’s first year but displayed marked improvement in ‘25 with a 10-3 record. Thanks to 11 returning starters, Houston was a popular pick this preseason to reach the Big 12 title game. A win on Friday night would certainly showcase the progress of Fritz and earn a statement win in the conference title race.

Houston leads the all-time series 18-17-1. However, Texas Tech owns a seven-game winning streak over the Cougars.

Houston vs. Texas Tech Odds and Info

Kickoff: Friday, Sept. 18 at 8 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Spread: Texas Tech -7.5
Over/Under: 52.5

Houston quarterback Conner Weigman looks to pass the ball against LSU at NRG Stadium on Dec. 27, 2025, in Houston, Texas.Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Steven Lassan: Texas Tech entered 2026 as the team to beat in the Big 12, but coach Joey McGuire’s team hasn’t looked sharp in wins over Abilene Christian and Oregon State. The Red Raiders struggled to stop the Beavers’ passing attack last week, giving up 417 yards through the air. Houston also played Oregon State this season and was more impressive in a 33-20 victory, including 533 yards of total offense. The Cougars took a massive step forward last season under coach Willie Fritz and have the pieces in place to do so again in ‘26, as quarterback Conner Weigman, running back Makhi Hughes and receiver Amare Thomas lead a solid offense. Texas Tech’s defense isn’t quite as strong as it was in ‘25, but this matchup should provide better insight into where this unit is with the heart of Big 12 play approaching. It feels like we haven’t seen the best of either team so far this season. Expect a sharper effort by the Red Raiders, as McGuire’s team finds a way to win a close one in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Texas Tech 27, Houston 24

Kyle Wood: There are signs that Texas Tech might not be as dominant as it was in 2025. For one, the Red Raiders’ offense has scored 68 in its first two games this season. Compare that to 67 in last year’s opener. They also allowed 24 points last week to Oregon State, something they only did once in 14 games last season. If this Texas Tech team is indeed more susceptible to upset than the one that ran roughshod through the Big 12, is Houston the team that will take advantage? The Cougars’ offense has been excellent and their defense tough. This is the first time coach Willie Fritz’s team is hitting the road this year, but Houston was 7-0 away from TDECU Stadium a season ago. With a healthy Conner Weigman, an efficient rushing attack led by Makhi Hughes and more receiving threats to complement Amare Thomas, the Cougars have what it takes to steal this game on the road. Compare that to Will Hammond making his fourth start, a struggling run game and an offense that doesn’t yet have a clear top target. An upset seems well within reach.
Prediction: Houston 27, Texas Tech 26

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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