Michigan State Spartans defensive lineman Jalen Thompson (9) reaches down to help up Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) Nov. 22, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Iowa Remains Underdog In ReliaQuest Bowl

Originally posted on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI
By Jordon Lawrenz | Last updated Dec 22, 2025 5:00 PM ET

Just over a week away from New Years Eve, the Iowa Hawkeyes are still underdogs in the ReliaQuest Bowl. They'll head to Raymond James Stadium as the No. 23 team in the nation, set to do battle with No. 14 Vanderbilt.

Currently, ESPN has the Commodores favored by 5.5 points. Their Football Power Index projection doesn't see it being that big of a win for Vanderbilt though, "Vanderbilt by 2 points with a 58% probability to win the game outright."

The over/under for this game is set at 47.5 which is extremely interesting knowing how much this Vanderbilt team can score. Ultimately, fans are just a week from finding out if the Hawkeyes have what it takes.

Vanderbilt's Offense Will Be Tough To Stop

Vanderbilt opens as a 5.5 point favorite over Iowa in the Reliaquest Bowl

(per @BetMGM) pic.twitter.com/vRfONIQ77L
— The Dore Report (@TheDoreReport) December 21, 2025

Assuming Heisman finalist quarterback Diego Pavia plays, Iowa is in for a huge challenge. The Commodores scored exactly 45 points in each of their final three games. They scored 31+ in each of their first five, including a 70 point performance against Georgia State.

Pavia failed to win the Heisman, but he finished with a 71.2% completion percentage and threw for 3,192 yards. He had 27 touchdowns to eight interceptions and led the team with 152 carries for 826 yards. In no world have the Hawkeyes faced a dual-threat QB like this, though is sets up the perfect matchup for him against QB Mark Gronowski.

Gronowski may not have as much arm talent as Pavia, but this is a QB battle that will perfectly represent the B1G vs. SEC. Knowing the Big Ten team is the underdog, Iowa will have to do everything in their power to leave Tampa with the win.

Iowa Eyes First Ranked Win Of The Year

Who America is rooting for in the ReliaQuest Bowl pic.twitter.com/A25vvdgnWO
— Iowa Chill (@IowaChill) December 15, 2025

Sadly for head coach Kirk Ferentz, ranked wins are something that eluded them this season. It began on September 6 when they fell to No. 16 Iowa State, 16-13. Looking back, there's absolutely no reason Iowa should've lost that game.

They then fell to No. 11 Indiana, No. 9 Oregon, and No. 17 USC. Knowing two of those teams are in the College Football Playoffs, there's really no shame in losing to either the Hoosiers or Ducks.

Simply put, Iowa is 15 points away from being 12-0. They had a clear path to the CFP, but lost to Indiana by five, Oregon by two, and USC by five. Time and time again they compete until the very end, but it's no surprise seeing them one-score underdogs against Vandy.

This article first appeared on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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