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College football analyst Josh Pate outlined why this week's Red River Rivalry game between the Longhorns and Sooners could be a turning point for Texas. Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Josh Pate sees Week 7 rivalry game as make-or-break for college football powerhouse

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By Matt De Lima | Last updated Oct 7, 2025 10:49 AM ET

The annual showdown between the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners always carries weight, but this year’s clash at the Cotton Bowl might define and redefine Texas’ entire season. During Tuesday’s episode of the Always College Football podcast, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy and college football commentator Josh Pate broke down why this game could either stabilize or derail Steve Sarkisian’s program.

Coming off an upset loss to Florida, Texas enters the rivalry matchup unranked and fighting to regain momentum. McElroy described the stakes plainly, noting that while Oklahoma could absorb a loss and stay alive in the playoff hunt, Texas faces a “tailspin” scenario if it drops a third game in six weeks.

Pate echoed that urgency, saying this weekend will determine whether the Longhorns’ season “goes south or turns around” completely.

Josh Pate says Texas must find answers against Oklahoma’s elite defense

Pate argued that Texas’ problems lie not in talent, but in execution. He said the Longhorns “didn’t really feel the need to attack the portal” for offensive line depth, but that doesn’t mean they lack ability.

Using a vivid metaphor, he explained, “You think you’ve got this sponge loaded with water and you just give it a little squeeze and water comes out. That’s the loaded offensive line. Maybe they’re not that. I’m still convinced there’s enough liquid in the sponge.”

Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Calling Saturday an “all-hands-on-deck, back-against-the-wall” moment, Pate compared the pressure inside Texas’ building to Alabama’s practice of calling in retired coach Joe Pendry for midseason fixes. He emphasized that Sarkisian’s staff must respond immediately to avoid a larger narrative about his leadership.

Despite the offensive issues, Pate praised quarterback Arch Manning for his poise under duress in Gainesville, saying the freshman “played really well under the circumstances.” But he acknowledged that facing Oklahoma’s defense, one of the best in college football, will be a far greater test.

Oklahoma football’s defensive surge reshapes the rivalry matchup

Oklahoma enters the game ranked No. 6 in the country and boasting a defense that allows just 7.2 points per game, second only to Ohio State nationally. Head coach Brent Venables’ influence has turned the Sooners into one of the SEC’s most physical units. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian called Venables’ defense “fantastic” and said it reflects “his handprint all over this team.”

The Sooners will likely start backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. after John Mateer’s hand injury required surgery. Hawkins has shown flashes of promise, but he’ll now face a Texas defense eager to rebound after surrendering 29 points to Florida. Sarkisian admitted the Longhorns “didn’t play to our standard” and said fixing mistakes at the line of scrimmage has been the top priority this week.

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The rivalry, long known for its fireworks, could hinge on defense this time. Both teams rank among the SEC’s top three in scoring and total defense, suggesting a low-scoring slugfest instead of a shootout. With desperation on one sideline and dominance on the other, Saturday’s game might decide whether Texas salvages its season or starts searching for answers about its future.

The Longhorns will face the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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