Kelley Ford Projects Kansas State as Big 12 Favorite, Sun Devils and BYU Close Behind

Kansas State is the team to beat—again. According to Kelley Ford, his model placed the Wildcats on top and sparked some early-season buzz. Arizona State and BYU round out a top three that could redefine the league’s power structure.

Behind the top three, things get interesting. Texas Tech receives its flowers for some impressive offseason upgrades and spring transfer portal additions aimed at rebalancing the roster. Next, Sonny Dykes and the TCU Horned Frogs remain a perennial threat in Ford’s view, despite some tubulence over the past two years; resilience gives the Frogs upside.

Ford slots Baylor, Kansas, and Utah in the 6–8 range as teams capable of surprises, but with more to prove. The middle third of the league is what stands out in my view. Iowa State is a team that most expect to finish near the top of the league, but Ford doesn’t believe so and has them listed at No. 9.

The bottom six—UCF, Colorado, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Houston, Arizona, and West Virginia—face uphill battles to crack into the upper brackets. Some may still surprise, but Ford believes the top quarter of the league is where attention should focus in 2025.

Kelley Ford’s projection gives Kansas State a clear edge going into the season, with Arizona State’s momentum firmly validated. The Big 12 promises to be wide open, with several roadblocks to clear before postseason glory, but Ford’s list shows who should be first in line.