Louisville vs SMU Prediction: Massive Under-the-Radar ACC Showdown

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Nov 22, 2025 4:11 AM ET

Not to dive too deep into all of the craziness with the ACC Championship tie-breakers, but very, very quietly, SMU is once again right there in the mix.

But okay, you're here, so this is the deal.

SMU has to beat Louisville and take out Cal. Virginia Tech losing to Virginia Tech next week would be a huge help. If that happens, SMU is in the ACC Championship if it wins out.

If Virginia beats Virginia Tech, then it gets wild - if you're a Mustang fan, root for Pitt to beat Georgia Tech, and then for Miami to take care of the Panthers.

But for now, just getting by a good Louisville team would be enough.

Got all of that? Essentially, both teams need the win.

Louisville vs SMU Preview

Nov 1, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) drops back to pass against the Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Gerald J. Ford Stadium© Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

How To Watch Louisville vs SMU

Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC

Why Louisville Will Win

How's that arm feeling, Miller Moss?

SMU might find ways to win, and it's solid at home, but it makes a whole bunch of mistakes - it walks into the stadium with 70 penalty yards - and the secondary might as well not even be there.

Yeah, the Mustang pass rush might be fantastic, but the pass defense gets toasted by everyone. Baylor and TCU combined for over 800 passing yards and nine scores early in the season.

Why SMU Will Win

Here's where quarterback Kevin Jennings needs to be razor sharp.

The Louisville pass rush isn't as good as it was over the last few years, and if Jennings gets time, look out.

The Cardinals have the No. 1 pass defense in the ACC, but it's 1-3 when allowing quarterbacks to hit at least 60% of their passes, and 6-0 when allowing fewer.

Jennings and SMU have completed more than 60% of their passes in every game but three. As long as he's on, and if the running game can crank out over four yards per carry, the momentum will be all on the home team's side.

Louisville vs SMU Prediction, Betting Lines

Clemson's Cade Klubnik went off on the SMU secondary.

Miami's Carson Beck had a day, even in the loss, and just about every other quarterback on the schedule got fat throwing for well over 200 yards.

Louisville is 4-1 when Moss throws for at least 240 yards, and the one loss was the overtime thriller against Virginia. Everyone but Wake Forest hit the 240-yard mark against the Mustang defense.

The Cardinals have yet to lose on the road this season. They're about to pull off a thriller that comes down to who has the ball last.

Louisville 27, SMU 24
Line: SMU -4, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 4.5

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- CFP Top 25 Breakdown of Every Spot

This article first appeared on College Football News and was syndicated with permission.

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