Sep 6, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) warms up prior to a game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Michigan tumbles on ESPN's FPI, CFP chance reach new low

Originally posted on Michigan Wolverines on SI
By Luke Hubbard | Last updated Sep 8, 2025 4:10 PM ET

The Michigan Wolverines suffered a tough loss on the road to the No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners this Saturday. Defensively, they did a solid job holding John Mateer and Co. to 24 points, but offensively, they looked all out of sorts. Bryce Underwood looked like a true freshman quarterback, but there were problems all across the offense that hurt them.

After a week one victory against New Mexico, which shouldn't have been as close as it was, the Wolverines slid six spots on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), falling from No. 15 to No. 21. This week, after their loss to Oklahoma, the Wolverines took another tumble, falling all the way down to No. 29. But what is the FPI, and how does it calculate its rankings?

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

Michigan's remaining odds

After the loss to Oklahoma, the FPI projects the Wolverines will finish the season with a 6.9-5.1 record. They entered the week with a 2.9% chance to win the Big 10, but those odds have since fallen to 0.6%. Their College Football Playoff odds took quite the hit, too, falling from 17.5% to 3.9%. The FPI gives the Wolverines just a 0.1% chance to win the National Championship with their loss to Oklahoma.

Wolverines' odds against Central Michigan

Central Michigan got its season started with a 16-14 win over San Jose State, but it struggled to keep up with its first Power Four opponent of the year, Pitt, falling to the Panthers, 45-17. This week, ESPN's Matchup Predictor, which uses the FPI to predict the winner of every game, gives Michigan a 95.5% chance to protect its home turf against the Chippewas.

This is a perfect get-right game for Bryce Underwood and the rest of Michigan's offense. They get to return home and face a lesser opponent and hopefully fix some of the issues that hurt them against the Sooners.

This article first appeared on Michigan Wolverines on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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