Michigan vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say

A marquee SEC vs. Big Ten matchup is set for this weekend, as No. 15 Michigan hits the road to square off against No. 18 Oklahoma. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Michigan is coming off an impressive showing for its new-look offense, as No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood made his debut at quarterback, while transfer running back Justice Haynes ran for three touchdowns to take down New Mexico in the opener.

That was a solid effort coming off last season’s forgettable offensive production, in which the Wolverines finished as one of the six worst passing attacks in college football, but it’s clear the addition of Underwood has already improved things.

John Mateer set a school record for the most passing yards in an Oklahoma debut, hitting 392 yards in the air with three touchdowns, and held Illinois State to just 34 passing yards as Brent Venables takes more direct control of this defense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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Michigan vs. Oklahoma football prediction

As it tends to in these situations, the computer models are siding with the SEC squad against its Big Ten counterpart in this non-conference game.

Oklahoma is the narrow favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the slight majority 53.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Sooners came out ahead in 10,700 of the computer’s simulations of the game, while Michigan edged out Oklahoma in the other 9,300 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect this one to finish as close as they come.

Oklahoma is projected to be just 0.9 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread in this matchup.

That’s because Oklahoma is a 5.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -188 and for Michigan at +155 to win outright.

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Where the money is going

A slight majority of bets are giving more confidence in the Sooners over the Wolverines, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oklahoma is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game by at least six points and cover this narrow point spread at home.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Michigan will either defeat the Sooners outright in an upset, or will keep the margin under six points in a loss on the road.

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Michigan vs. Oklahoma future projections

Michigan opened up as the No. 21 team in the index’s updated 136-team college football rankings coming out of the opening weekend.

The models favor the Wolverines to be 12.1 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, and have an 18.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Michigan will win 8.0 games this season, according to the forecast.

The computers estimate that Oklahoma is 10.5 points better than an average opponent, and locked the team in at the No. 23 position in the updated national rankings.

The Sooners are projected to win just 6.0 games this season, according to the computers, and have a 16.6 percent chance to make the playoff.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last week?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 70.8 percent of all matchups straight-up and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch Michigan vs. Oklahoma

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Oklahoma

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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