NCAAF Week 11: Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans betting picks, preview

The Pac-12 gauntlet rolls on this week with Oregon playing host to USC in Saturday's nightcap. We thought heading into the season that this could've been a conference championship preview, but USC is nearly out of the race after three losses in its last four games. Oregon, on the other hand, still has conference and national title hopes, but the Ducks can't afford to lose this game.

Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans betting odds, preview

Saturday, Nov. 11, 10:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Oregon -14.5, Over/under: 73.5, Moneyline: Oregon -850 | USC +575

If you told us before the season Oregon would be more than a two-touchdown favorite against USC in Week 11, we wouldn't have believed you. Caleb Williams has done his part to keep the Trojans competitive, but USC's defense has been an embarrassment for nearly two months.

The Trojans have given up 44.2 points per game over their last six contests, and the defense just surrendered 52 points to Washington in a performance that resulted in the firing of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. A change at DC isn't going to help the Trojans' flawed defensive personnel slow down an Oregon offense that ranks second in the country in points per game (43.3). 

The only team ahead of Oregon in that category? Well, that would be USC with 45.5 points per game, hence the whopping total of 73.5 for this matchup.

Oregon vs. USC betting picks

Oregon team total over 44.5 points (-130 DraftKings)
 
USC's defense can't stop air right now. The Trojans have given up 48 points to Notre Dame, 49 to California and 52 to Washington in recent weeks, and Oregon is the best offense they're going to face all year. 

Bo Nix is going to have wide open receivers to throw to all game, and he'll continue to boost his Heisman campaign against this dismal secondary. USC also ranks 124th in the country in red-zone scoring defense, which will help our cause here considering we can't afford to settle for field goals with a team total this high.