Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Eddrick Houston (96) pressures Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) during the second half of the Cotton Bowl Classic College Football Playoff semifinal game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 10, 2025. Ohio State won 28-14. Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

New CFP Prediction Forecasts Familiar Heartbreak for Texas Longhorns

Originally posted on Texas Longhorns on SI
By Jon Alfano | Last updated Jul 2, 2025 10:00 AM ET

With the College Football Playoff already expanding to 12 teams and sure to expand more in the future, rematches of playoff games the following season are only going to become more and more common. In fact, the Texas Longhorns and Ohio State Buckeyes find themselves in that exact situation this year.

These two blue bloods met in the CFP semifinal at the Cotton Bowl last season, with the Buckeyes defeating the Longhorns 28-14 en route to a national championship. On Aug. 30, they'll meet again in Columbus to kick off the 2025 season with a bang.

Due to the new playoff format, however, this may not even be the only matchup between these two perennial powers this season.

Insider Predicts Texas-Ohio State Grudge Match in CFP

College football insider Brett McMurphy, who recently joined On3, revealed his up-to-date College Football Playoff prediction on Tuesday. Notably, he has Texas earning the No. 5 seed and defeating No. 12-seeded Boise State in the first round, but losing to No. 4-seeded Ohio State in the quarterfinals.

NEW: College Football Playoff Prediction via @Brett_McMurphy

Do you agree?

https://t.co/5IUoqiYgcm https://t.co/XWxc6mHiBK pic.twitter.com/7MUlw3yPOk
— On3 (@On3sports) July 1, 2025

No matter who the Longhorns face in the CFP, losing again - this time in the quarterfinals instead of the semifinals as in the past two seasons - would be incredibly painful. However, losing to the Buckeyes once again would turn the pain dial up to 11.

Ohio State is essentially at the top of the sport at all times, possibly even more so than other titans like Alabama. For a truly insane stat, the Buckeyes have had only one (non-COVID affected) season with fewer than 10 wins in the past 20 years, and that was in 2011 when they were dealing with the abrupt departure of legendary head coach Jim Tressel and a massive NCAA investigation. Longhorns star quarterback Arch Manning was seven years old the last time the Buckeyes had fewer than 10 wins in a season, by the way.

Texas wants to get back on Ohio State's level as one of the sport's perennial juggernauts. If the Longhorns lose to the Buckeyes in the CFP twice in a row, possibly with a regular season loss in between, it would be a cold, harsh reminder that they're still not all the way back yet despite all their progress.

Hopefully for the Longhorns, McMurphy's prediction doesn't come to pass.

This article first appeared on Texas Longhorns on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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