Notre Dame Football Countdown to Miami Kickoff: One Thought Before 2025 Opener

First, let’s start with the numbers. ESPN’s analytics give the Fighting Irish a 54.6 percent chance of earning a CFP berth, but that number should probably be a bit higher. Notre Dame, as of right now, is the favorite in every game the program will play this fall. 

The season-opener against Miami will likely be the toughest outing head coach Marcus Freeman and his troops play all year. If the Fighting Irish triumph in Week 1, it’ll be difficult for them – even if they drop an outing to Texas A&M or USC – to not earn a spot in the CFP. 

Notre Dame Football Countdown to Kickoff: Two Thoughts Before 2025 Opener

Now if Notre Dame falls to Miami and loses another game in 2025, then it’ll be tough for the CFP committee to justify giving the Fighting Irish a spot. 

Nevertheless, it appears unlikely things will ever reach that point, given how talent-laden and deep the roster is at every position. The only true question mark remains the quarterback position (starting QB CJ Carr is yet to even attempt an in-game pass in his career), but Notre Dame should be able to offset any early-season Carr shortcomings given how loaded it is everywhere else on the field. 

Notre Dame Football Countdown to Kickoff: Three Thoughts Before 2025 Opener

As for how far the Fighting Irish can actually go once they’re in the CFP, well that all comes down to Carr himself. A pro-style quarterback, Carr offers a new dimension to the Notre Dame offense.

Long gone are the strictly short (and few intermediate) passes and QB keepers of the Riley Leonard era. With Carr, the Fighting Irish have a legitimate downfield game, which will only stretch the defense and open up the field for superstar back Jeremiyah Love. 

But how long does it take for Carr to become truly comfortable in his role and to mesh with his receivers? And, as an inexperienced redshirt freshman, can he stay calm and collected in late-game situations and be consistent through four quarters?

Finding the answers to those questions will be a season-long process, but if Carr can reach his ceiling (or at the very least near it) by season’s end, the Fighting Irish may find themselves back in the national championship and better positioned to triumph than they were a year ago.