Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns prediction: Who wins, and why?

1. Arch Madness

As you will hear 10,000 times leading into the game and during it, the Longhorns will debut Arch Manning as their starting quarterback for good this week. You can expect nothing less with that famous surname and his billing as the No. 1 overall recruit a couple years ago.

He’s yet to start a game of this magnitude away from home, but he had some exposure a year ago when Ewers was injured. His best outing came against Mississippi State, when he hit 84 percent of his throws for 325 yards and 3 all-purpose touchdowns.

Now, he faces an Ohio State defense that loses nine of its starters from the national title team, brings on lead rusher Quintrevion Wisner to help him balance this Texas attack, and is throwing to promising targets like Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore. 

If the Buckeyes can’t get enough pressure against Manning early on, he could build some serious momentum on a variety of short- and medium-throws and mix in some running plays to move the chains and get the OSU tacklers out of sorts.

--

2. New-look Buckeyes

Not only did Ohio State lose plenty of its defense, including both its stud edge rushers. There’s a new quarterback, new rushers to replace their 1,000-yard backs from a year ago, two new edge blockers, and a very new quarterback.

Julian Sayin predictably got the nod to start under center, and while he brings five-star pedigree as a recruit, he’s critically low on any experience, transferring to OSU last year from Alabama after Nick Saban’s retirement.

But most important will be how Ohio State replaces its two superb coordinators. Chip Kelly on offense and Jim Knowles on defense were arguably the two figures on this staff most responsible for the Buckeyes’ title run, and now both are gone.

Brian Hartline, Ohio State’s uber-respected and hugely-productive recruiting force, steps in to orchestrate this team’s offense, while Bill Belichick protege Matt Patricia will command this defense. They’re not exactly green, but they face a tough first test to prove they can duplicate their predecessors’ success.

--

3. Battle at the line

Watch closely from the opening minutes how the battle between the Longhorns’ front seven pass rushers and the Buckeyes’ edge blockers develops. Because if Ohio State blinks in the face of that rush, things could go sideways early.

Ohio State had to replace both its star offensive tackles and its star center guard after they turned pro, leaving major questions for how this line will hold up against what figures to be a punishing Longhorn formation.

Texas returns three of its four sack leaders from last season’s defense and scored blue-chip defensive tackle transfers in Cole Brevard and Maraad Watson.

That’s in addition to a pair of Longhorns tacklers that rank among the nation’s very best: defensive end Colin Simmons, who had 9 sacks last season, and linebacker Anthony Hill, who has 13 sacks in his career. Both will have Sayin in their sights from the jump.

--

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are split on how to project this SEC vs. Big Ten clash.

One notable projection comes in from the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

How does that model foresee events in Columbus this weekend?

Texas, not Ohio State, is the narrow favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 53.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Buckeyes as narrow underdogs on their own turf, edging out the Longhorns in the remaining 46.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? The models forecast a result about as close as it gets.

Texas is projected to be just 0.7 points better than Ohio State on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More: Ohio State vs. Texas football picks: What the analytics say

--

Who is favored?

Ohio State is a narrow 1.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -120 and for Texas at +100 to win outright.

--

Ohio State vs. Texas prediction: Who wins?

Ohio State should have an ace in the hole in Jeremiah Smith, the sophomore wide receiver who is not only the best player at his position, but arguably the single most talented and consequential athlete in college football right now.

But last time out, the Longhorns held the phenom to just 1 reception for 3 yards, a development that prevented the Buckeyes’ offense from inflicting the same damage it did against their other College Football Playoff opponents.

Sayin will have to rely heavily on Smith getting open on a regular basis, but the Texas secondary could have enough personnel to keep him adequately covered and deny the Ohio State quarterback his security blanket to start out.

Manning should find some breathing room in the short game early on, even as he starts behind a line undergoing major turnover itself, but he will be challenged by an Ohio State secondary that is still a pronounced strength and returns safety Caleb Downs, one of the most instinctual and athletic fixtures on any defense in the country.

But the Longhorns have the undeniable advantage at the line defensively and should cause some serious damage against the Buckeyes’ new offense.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 31-23
• In an upset
• And hits the over

--

How to watch Texas vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

--

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.