Oregon Ducks' College Football Playoff Chances Predicted

"FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule," according to ESPN.

The odds on FanDuel Sportsbook tell a different story, however. According to FanDuel, the Ducks have the third-best odds of making the CFP at -265. Ahead of Oregon are Ohio State (-310), Texas (-300), and the Ducks are slightly in front of Georgia and coach Kirby Smart at -260.

ESPN's FPI and FanDuel do agree on hierarchy of winning the Big Ten in 2025, with both services giving Oregon the third-best percentage/odds of winning the Big Ten, behind Penn State and Ohio State.

Both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions have proven themselves as competitors at the top of the current college football world, and it appears that 2025 will be no different. Can the Ducks defend their Big Ten title?

Oregon coach Dan Lanning has relied on experienced transfer quarterbacks, Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, to the lead the Ducks' offense in previous seasons. Now, Lanning turns to a rather inexperienced transfer in Dante Moore.

CBS Sports' Josh Pate spoke about FanDuel's odds for the Big Ten on his podcast, "Josh Pate's College Football Show," and he divided the conference into three tiers:

"The Big Ten, there is so obviously a tier one of three teams, and then there's like one team in tier two, and then there's a mess," said Pate. "So, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State. They are the three teams that have minus odds to make the playoffs. So they're they're big time favorites to make the playoff. If you bet them to miss the playoff, you're getting better than one to one return on your money. Then past that, you go a little ways and you got Michigan, sort of on an island all by themselves."

"Then in tier three, like USC, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa, and I would count Washington there as well, all have somewhat comparable odds. There are long shots to make the playoff," Pate continued.

In 2025, Oregon only faces one other "tier one" team, per Pate's ranking system, when the Ducks travel to Penn State. Lanning and his team are not scheduled to play Ohio State or Michigan in the regular season, but the Ducks do have games against a number of "tier three" teams like USC, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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