Oregon vs Penn State Prediction: Playoff-Level Showdown in Happy Valley

Penn State needs this more. It had three light-and-breezy tune-ups to get here, but it still has to deal with back-to-back dates at Iowa and Ohio State.

Oregon destroyed Oklahoma State, rolled past Northwestern, and looking ahead, it doesn’t have to face the Buckeyes or Michigan.

It does have to deal with Indiana and USC, but both of those are at home. If it’s good enough to win this, it’s good enough to get to Indianapolis in early December.

Oregon vs Penn State How To Watch

Saturday, September 27, 2025
Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
- CFP Top 12 & Projections
- CFN 1-136 Rankings
- Big Ten Picks For Every Remaining Game
@PeteFiutak

Why Oregon Will Win

We still don’t know what Penn State can do.

The three-game schedule was so embarrassingly - and smarty - light, that there’s been no stress-test pressure yet on a veteran team that could’ve used one good game to get up to full speed.

Oregon has been brilliant from the start, with wins over Oregon State, Oklahoma State, and Northwestern better than anything the Nittany Lions have done.

And no, the Ducks haven’t exactly dealt with Ohio State or Georgia or Miami, but they’ve been razor-sharp without a hint of a hiccup against the three low-end power-level teams.

It starts up front. The Oregon line has been dominant - it allowed just one sack in the four games - there’s been just one turnover, and quarterback Dante Moore is playing like the superstar recruit he was for Oregon-then-UCLA-and-back-to-Oregon.

Penn State hasn’t unleashed the beast yet, but it also hasn’t shown too much down the field so far. Oregon has yet to allow a touchdown pass in the first four games.

Why Penn State Will Win

Several things can be true at once with the Nittany Lions.

They can be untested, and could use a little bit to get rolling, and … it had three games to get the timing down and not worry about making a mistake or three.

So far, the penalties have been minor, there’s been just one turnover, and the defense has seemed to figure out the rotation to be ready for the wave of Duck plays.

And yes, Moore has been magnificent so far for Oregon. He has yet to face the pass rush and pressure he’s about to deal with from a Nittany Lion front that’s been great, but seems to have held something back.

The plays behind the line are there, but - just a guess - there’s nothing on the film from the first three games to properly represent what’s coming, but …

Is Penn State Ready to Play Up To the Expectations?

If we’re all really being honest, Oregon has played like the No. 1 team in America over the first four games.

It’s been dominant in every phase. It’s confident, deep, explosive, and Penn State has to be ready to match the Ducks play for play. That might be a problem.

To keep hammering on this theme, no, it doesn’t seem like we’ve seen the real Penn State yet, but the one over the first three games hasn’t been elite enough.

The ground game is great, the defense is a killer, but Drew Allar misfired a bit too much against FIU and Villanova, and that’s not going to get better against an Oregon defense that will thrive in the opposing. White Out conditions and atmosphere.

Oregon vs Penn State Prediction, Betting Lines

Oregon 27, Penn State 24
Line: Penn State -3.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Must See Rating: 5

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

- Bowl Projections