Oregon vs. Washington: Pac-12 Championship Game Prediction, Pick

History of sorts will be made on Friday in Las Vegas as the Pac-12 hosts its last-ever football championship game before the conference disintegrates in the face of the college football realignment that becomes official next summer. But before then, the league will get a proper send-off as its two best teams, Oregon and Washington, both ranked in the top-five play each other for the title, and for a shot at the College Football Playoff.

Oregon vs. Washington prediction, preview

When: Fri., Dec. 1
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Pac-12 Championship Game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Oregon -9.5
Total: 65.5 points
Moneyline: Ducks -350 | Wash +280
FPI pick: Oregon 75.8% to win

What to watch for

Oregon wins if: Bo Nix has time to work against Washington's secondary. So far, the line has given the Ducks quarterback plenty of time to work. Overall, the protection has allowed just five sacks all year, the lowest mark in FBS. Conversely, the Huskies rank just 119th in sacks recorded on defense. 

Given that fact, expect Washington to drop more people into coverage and clog Oregon's passing lanes. If so, the Ducks can counter with a productive rushing attack, ranking 8th nationally with 5.4 yards per carry and would benefit from the extra running room.

Washington wins if: It can protect Michael Penix, balance things out more, and convert third downs. The Huskies are 2nd nationally in sacks allowed and can withstand pressure. That's allowed Penix to connect with his receivers and churn out chunk plays in the air all year. 

But the Huskies also need tailback Dillon Johnson to reel off consistent gainers to take some of the pressure off. Johnson is averaging a healthy 5.6 yards per carry and has 12 touchdown rushes. Washington can get into trouble if it gets too one-dimensional, and having a credible threat on the ground will help force Oregon's defenders to play near the line, which in turn can help the Huskies' receivers get open more easily.

Oregon vs. Washington prediction

Oregon has been beating teams convincingly most of the season since losing to Washington midseason, while the Huskies have been winning by an average of just 6 points since the Arizona game, and their last eight games were decided by 10 or less.

Those close results illustrate Washington's relative weaknesses defending against productive offenses and inconsistencies running the ball. Those are phases in which Oregon has the advantage, but the Huskies' close wins show an ability to adapt to those situations and play up to the competition.

College Football HQ picks...

• Oregon wins 38-31
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the over