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Rule of Legendary NFL Coach May Prevent Arch Manning From Entering 2026 NFL Draft

Originally posted on Athlon Sports
By Kevin Matthew Borba | Last updated Jun 2, 2025 3:15 PM ET

The stark contrast in perceived talent at quarterback between the 2024 and 2025 NFL Draft was night and day.

The 2024 class, headlined by Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, saw six quarterbacks taken in the opening round, one shy of a draft record. The class was viewed as having multiple franchise quarterbacks with superstar potential. When it came to this year's class, the pool of talent was so shallow that immediately after the draft, many already turned their attention to 2026.

There is still a lot that needs to unfold, but plenty of people around the sport have been penciling Texas quarterback Arch Manning in as the top prospect in the class. A distinction that some think is due to the pedigree of his last name, while others are convinced they've seen enough flashes despite him having just two career starts.

On a recent episode of the "McShay Show," NFL draft insider Todd McShay dove into the prospect that is the youngest Manning, and addressed the notion of him leaving after just one season as the starter in Austin. Aside from pointing out that his uncles, Peyton (Tennessee) and Eli (Ole Miss), stayed at the college level longer than most expected, McShay also referenced an old rule of thumb for drafting quarterbacks that the legendary Bill Parcells pioneered.

"They are as well equipped as any family (the Mannings) to understand...and have shown through history, through proof that they value the importance of learning and starting games in college," McShay said. "It's the old Parcells theory."

The two-time Super Bowl Champion head coach had seven things that needed to be checked off a list to really consider a quarterback:

Be a senior.
In the process of graduating or already possessing their degree
Three-year starter
Have at least 23 wins
Start at least 30 games
2:1 touchdown to interception ratio
60% completion percentage

McShay pointed out notable flops who were taken early but didn't reach the marks, such as Mitch Trubisky, Mark Sanchez and, most recently, Anthony Richardson.

While not every case is the same, and Manning simply could be the generational prospect that some think he will be, there seem to be more signs pointing to him returning to Texas after 2025 than people realize. His uncles each stayed four years, Texas was his dream school and most importantly, history shows that a quarterback who leaves early has struggled.

So, although speculating his draft spot is fun, it does feel safer to assume he won't be leaving anytime soon.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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