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Nov 30, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Caullin Lacy (5) celebrates during the game against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Simulating Louisville's 2025 Season 25 Times in College Football 26

Originally posted on Louisville Cardinals on SI
By Matthew McGavic | Last updated Jul 29, 2025 6:00 AM ET

Earlier this week, I wrapped up my 'Louisville Preseason CFB26 Preview Series.' I CPU simulated each of the Cardinals' games for their upcoming 2025 season using the video game 'EA Sports College Football 26,' and it produced some surprising results.

Louisville finished the series going just 7-5 overall, although that did come with a 5-3 mark in ACC play. While they had some big wins like at Virginia Tech and SMU, they also suffered a couple surprising losses to James Madison to Kentucky.

Below: Complete Preseason CFB26 Preview Series

Given the preseason top-25 buzz that real-world Louisville has, seeing them go barely over .500 in game-to-game CPU simulations was a bit shocking. So, I wanted to take it up a notch.

I decided to CPU simulate Louisville's entire 2025 season not once, not twice, but 25 times. It produced a wide range of results, from supremely disappointing years to some of the best seasons in program history.

Below are the various results from the simulations, including year-to-year finishes, how Louisville did against each team, and bowl results. I even included each sim's ACC winner, national champion and Heisman Trophy winners.

Record for Each Simulation with ACC Record and Final Ranking

Sim 1: 10-3 (5-3) - No. 12
Sim 2: 8-5 (3-5)
Sim 3: 10-3 (5-3) - No. 15
Sim 4: 8-5 (4-4)
Sim 5: 8-5 (3-5)
Sim 6: 7-6 (3-5)
Sim 7: 5-7 (2-5)
Sim 8: 8-5 (4-4)
Sim 9: 8-5 (5-3) - No. 23
Sim 10: 6-7 (3-5)
Sim 11: 10-3 (6-2) - No. 9
Sim 12: 9-4 (5-3)
Sim 13: 8-5 (3-5)
Sim 14: 8-5 (4-4)
Sim 15: 10-3 (6-2) - No. 22
Sim 16: 8-5 (5-3)
Sim 17: 9-4 (4-4)
Sim 18: 4-8 (1-7)
Sim 19: 10-3 (6-2) - No. 8
Sim 20: 11-4 (6-2) - No. 6
Sim 21: 7-6 (4-4)
Sim 22: 10-3 (6-2) - No. 12
Sim 23: 7-6 (4-4)
Sim 24: 9-4 (4-4)
Sim 25: 10-4 (7-1) - No. 19

Average win/loss record: 8.32-4.72
Average ACC win/loss record: 4.32-3.68
Ranked Finishes: 9 (Highest - No. 6)

Win/Loss Records vs. Each Team with Average Scores

FCS SE (EKU): 25-0 (46.7-7.0)
James Madison: 21-4 (32.9-21.7)
Bowling Green: 24-1 (38.6-13.4)
at Pitt: 14-11 (29.8-27.2)
Virginia: 20-5 (30.5-21.7)
at Miami: 3-22 (19.8-31.6)
Boston College: 17-8 (32.9-23.6)
at Virginia Tech: 15-10 (29.6-26.4)
Cal: 20-5 (33.7-19.9)
Clemson: 9-16 (24.2-31.2)
at SMU: 10-15 (31.1-32.0)
Kentucky: 18-7 (32.6-24.9)

Average Offense (with bowls): 31.69 PPG
Average Defense (with bowls): 23.51 PPG

Total Occurrences of Final Season Records

11-4 (1)
10-3 (6)
10-4 (1)
9-4 (3)
8-5 (8)
7-6 (3)
6-7 (1)
5-7 (1)
4-8 (1)

Total Occurrences of ACC Records

7-1 (1)
6-2 (5)
5-3 (5)
4-4 (7)
3-5 (5)
2-6 (1)
1-7 (1)

ACC Championship Game Appearances

Sim 20: 51-3 loss to Miami
Sim 25: 41-38 loss to Clemson

Bowl Performances

Overall Bowl Record: 12-12
College Football Playoff Appearances: 3 (Sim 11, 19, 20)
Other Bowl Appearances: Gasparilla (5), GameAbove Sports (4), Fenway (3), Birmingham (2), Duke's Mayo (2), Holiday, Military, Sun, Pop-Tarts

Sim 1: Birmingham, 37-34 win vs. Tennessee
Sim 2: GameAbove Sports, 36-7 win vs. UConn
Sim 3: Gasparilla, 28-16 win vs. Georgia
Sim 4: Gasparilla, 31-29 loss vs. Arkansas
Sim 5: Fenway, 42-14 win vs. Ball State
Sim 6: Fenway, 41-27 loss vs. Washington
Sim 7: N/A
Sim 8: Gasparilla, 31-13 loss vs. Florida
Sim 9: Gasparilla, 36-34 loss vs. Oklahoma
Sim 10: Fenway, 32-31 loss vs. Notre Dame
Sim 11: CFP 1st Round (home), 28-24 loss vs. Pitt
Sim 12: Birmingham, 48-17 win vs. Mississippi State
Sim 13: Military, 49-19 win vs. Memphis
Sim 14: Duke's Mayo, 42-14 win vs. USC
Sim 15: Holiday, 51-7 win vs. Oregon State
Sim 16: Gasparilla, 28-21 loss vs. Florida
Sim 17: GameAbove Sports, 31-6 vs. Miami-Oh.
Sim 18: N/A
Sim 19: CFP 1st Round (home), 36-34 loss vs. Oregon
Sim 20: CFP 1st Round (home), 34-20 win vs. Duke; Orange, 33-11 loss vs. Miami
Sim 21: GameAbove Sports, 23-20 loss vs. Tulane
Sim 22: Sun, 24-8 win vs. Colorado State
Sim 23: Duke's Mayo, 30-27 loss vs. Indiana
Sim 24: GameAbove Sports, 27-24 win vs. Miami-Oh.
Sim 25: Pop-Tarts, 41-38 loss vs. Baylor