Skillets and Offensive Skill Sets: SMU vs. TCU Preview / Prediction

FORT WORTH — The last skillet is on the stove. Saturday afternoon in Amon G. Carter Stadium, TCU (2-0) and SMU (2-1) meet in what will be the final Battle for the Iron Skillet, a rivalry game that has run its course through decades, conferences, and more than a few tailgates heavy on cowboy boots and Lone Star beer.

Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. Eastern (11 a.m. Central) on ESPN2, with SiriusXM channel 136 carrying the Horned Frogs’ call and channel 84 airing the Mustangs’ broadcast.

This is Dallas-Fort Worth’s football family feud, a private-school showdown where the parking lots fill with Range Rovers, Greek letters, and more designer sunglasses than a Sunglass Hut clearance sale.

It’s also, as both schools now live in the shiny new world of the Power Four conferences, a final chapter steeped in nostalgia. When the skillet goes cold, it goes cold for good.

On the field, there’s no shortage of storylines. Sonny Dykes, the head coach at TCU, once roamed the SMU sideline. Rhett Lashlee, now running the Mustangs, has a chance to grab bragging rights in Dallas before the rivalry shutters. Quarterbacks Josh Hoover (TCU) and Kevin Jennings (SMU) are young, but picking up experience and already proving steady enough to keep this matchup balanced and, perhaps, explosive.

So, let’s turn up the heat on the skillet one last time.

It’s SMU and TCU, for all the beaver nuggets.

Sagarin Rating Comparison

The Sagarin power ratings don’t care about your nostalgia. They’re cold, hard numbers, and they tell a story that matches Vegas’ skepticism.

SMU began the year ranked 21st with an 80.20 power rating but has slid to 33rd at 77.25. TCU started further back at 43rd with a 71.97 rating but has climbed to 36th at 76.49. The subtraction model makes this simple: 77.25 (SMU) minus 76.49 (TCU) = +0.76 in favor of the Mustangs on a neutral field. Add 5.38 points for TCU’s home-field edge, and suddenly it’s Frogs by 4.62.

Vegas is a bit more bullish on purple, setting the line at TCU -7, with an over/under of 62.5. That’s a two-and-a-half-point gap between the computers and the casinos, and it reflects the public’s confidence in Hoover’s arm and the Horned Frogs’ recent momentum.

Never mind the fact the nation saw TCU blow out Chapel Bill and the Tar Heels on Labor Day Night in primetime.

Well, TCU is back in the spotlight again, sort of.

SMU Mustangs

Record: 2-1
Head Coach: Rhett Lashlee
Quarterback: Kevin Jennings

The Mustangs are used to lighting up scoreboards, but their calling card in this one may have to be efficiency and patience. Jennings, the sophomore quarterback, has managed the offense with calm through three weeks. His ability to push tempo while avoiding turnovers will be essential in a hostile Fort Worth.

Keys for SMU:

1. Protect Jennings. TCU’s front can disrupt timing, and Jennings is still green. If the Mustangs let him stand tall, he can carve up soft zones.
2. Run to win. Establishing balance with their running backs keeps the Frogs’ defense honest. SMU doesn’t have to dominate, but they can’t afford one-dimensional football.
3. Win the middle eight. The stretch bridging halftime often tilts games. SMU needs to keep momentum during that window, especially on the road.

For Lashlee, this is about proving SMU can stand toe-to-toe with its crosstown rival in its final swing. Lose, and the Mustangs walk away empty-handed and at two losses on the year. Win, and they’ll own the last laugh.

TCU Horned Frogs

Record: 2-0
Head Coach: Sonny Dykes
Quarterback: Josh Hoover

Hoover has shown poise early, throwing with accuracy and making smart reads. The Frogs’ offense isn’t yet the air raid Dykes once ran at SMU, but it’s explosive enough to punish blown coverages and keep a crowd buzzing.