Tennessee vs. Syracuse score prediction by expert football model

Tennessee and Syracuse are set to square off in this Week 1 college football season opener in a battle of SEC and ACC teams from Atlanta. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Tennessee is something of a question entering this season, as the lynchpin of its offense, lead rusher Dylan Sampson, is out of the picture, and after the surprising defection of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who suddenly transferred to UCLA in the spring.

Much of the rest of the Volunteers’ superb defense remains largely intact despite the loss of edge rusher James Pearce, but new quarterback Joey Aguilar is working behind a new line and breaking in some new receivers.

Syracuse could have more credibly tested the Vols’ secondary last season, when Kyle McCord was stationed at QB1 and led college football in total passing output, but his departure leaves the Orange offense in a period of transition, too.

Steve Angeli stepped into McCord’s shoes this spring after transferring from Notre Dame, and he faces an uphill challenge working in the face of Tennessee’s defense.

What do the analytics expect will happen as the Volunteers and Orange face off in this SEC vs. ACC clash this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Syracuse compare in this Week 1 college football game.

Tennessee vs. Syracuse score prediction

As expected, the model is siding more with the SEC squad in this 2025 season opener against its ACC counterpart.

And by a pretty healthy margin, too.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Syracuse by a projected score of 34 to 18 and will win the game by an expected margin of 16.5 points.

The model gives the Vols a convincing 85 percent chance of outright victory in this matchup, while the Orange have a 15 percent chance to upset.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

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How to bet Tennessee vs. Syracuse

The books are also leaning more on the Vols over the Orange in this non-conference tilt.

Tennessee is a strong 13.5 point favorite against Syracuse, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -600 and for Syracuse at +430 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Tennessee -13.5
• Vols to win -600
• Bet over 51.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors when looking at the odds.

A strong majority of bettors are siding with the Volunteers to take care of business against the Orange, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting 71 percent of bets to win the game by at least two touchdowns and to cover this generous point spread.

The other 29 percent of wagers project Syracuse will either defeat the Volunteers outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the game under two touchdowns in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are siding with the Vols to take down the Orange in this SEC vs. ACC clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

That model doesn’t see much of a contest here.

Tennessee is the big favorite over Syracuse, projected to win the game outright in the sizable majority 88.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Syracuse as the presumptive winner in an upset in the remaining 11.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tennessee is projected to be 15.3 points better than Syracuse on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

More ... Tennessee vs. Syracuse football prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football HQ prediction

College Football HQ picks: Tennessee to win, and cover the spread.

Two touchdowns sounds about right for a Vols offense that shouldn’t lose too much of its oomph with Joey Aguilar at the helm. He’s a proven producer throwing the football, and what remains of Tennessee’s wideouts shouldn’t have too great an issue with a Syracuse secondary that was 82nd in FBS against the pass a year ago. Tennessee by 17

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How to watch Tennessee vs. Syracuse

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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