Texas vs. Florida prediction: Who wins, and why?

1. Where is the Gators’ offense?

Florida ranks No. 100 in FBS in scoring this season, averaging just 22 points per game, but that mark is inflated by its sole win, a 55-0 result against Long Island in the opener.

Doubled, basically. In its three-game losing streak since then -- against USF, LSU, and Miami -- the Gators have averaged just 11 points per game.

Some of the problem stems from the several injuries that have bothered Lagway dating back to last season and into this preseason. He threw 5 interceptions in the LSU loss and followed that with 61 yards on the road against the Hurricanes.

Florida’s offensive line was branded as one of college football’s more promising units given its experience, but it has struggled giving Lagway enough room to find himself and now goes up against a Texas pass rush that is among the most physical in the nation.

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2. Is Arch for real or not?

Riding the wave of some impossible preseason hype, Arch Manning was the near-consensus Heisman favorite and future No. 1 draft pick. Not anymore, after an inconsistent start that has raised questions around his decision making and mechanics.

A week after completing 44 percent of his throws against UTEP, the quarterback was good for 86 percent against Sam Houston, but the latter is one of the worst pass defenses in college football.

Texas needs to balance this offense out to help Manning and open up his passing lanes, but two of its top backs, CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner, are both dealing with injuries. Manning is a solid runner himself, rushing for 5 TDs, but he needs more help.

Florida’s defense has still looked the part for most of this season -- top 30 against the pass, top 40 in third down stops, and top 25 in scoring -- and has the bodies to rattle Manning and force him into tighter throwing windows than he’s comfortable with.

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3. On the ground

Texas comes into the game ranking tops in the SEC when defending against the run, allowing opponents just under 61 yards per game on average and holding their backs to a paltry 2.2 yards per carry.

Florida’s ground attack has been nonexistent so far, sitting 107th out of 136 FBS teams by averaging 123 yards per game, sitting under 4 yards per carry, and responsible for just 2 touchdowns all year.

If the Longhorns can smother the Gators’ rush, then they can reduce this offense to one very shaky dimension and force Lagway to win the game, a tough ask against the 16th ranked air defense that has allowed just 1 passing touchdown so far.

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Who is favored?

Texas is a 5.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -215 and for Florida at +180 to win outright.

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Texas vs. Florida prediction: Who wins?

Texas presents too great an obstacle along its defensive front seven alignment against the run to not eventually neutralize what remains of Florida’s offensive firepower.

But conversely, the Gators just might have enough bodies to make things uncomfortable for Manning in the pocket, forcing him to throw early, adding up the mistakes, and curtailing his ability to pull out long gainers with his legs.

Add in the injury concerns for the Longhorns’ backfield, and this might be closer than expected, but with the predictable result for Billy Napier’s floundering tenure.

College Football HQ picks...

• Texas wins 24-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More: Texas vs. Florida score prediction by expert model

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How to watch Texas vs. Florida

When: Sat., Oct. 4
Where: Florida

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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