The Pros and Cons of Replacing James Franklin at Penn State

First and foremost, there’s the matter of who would replace Franklin. Most of the sport’s high-profile coaches likely wouldn’t be inclined to go from one good program to another. Penn State isn’t dragging Kalen DeBoer out of Alabama, and Dabo Swinney and Brian Kelly are not good personality fits. 

Penn State might be able to pry Steve Sarkisian from Texas, but if the Longhorns want him, nobody will outbid that warchest. And frankly, Sark’s perpetual status of “one gust of wind from snapping someone’s neck” probably isn't a temperament that matches Penn State’s institutional sensibilities. Dan Lanning, Marcus Freeman and Ryan Day aren’t moving on either. I feel ashamed to even pretend Kirby Smart would be an option.

Luke Fickell has not done well for himself at Wisconsin. Mike Norvell has spent a lot of time at Florida State creating a highlight reel of clock management errors. Even the once-beloved Joe Moorhead has struggled, for a variety of reasons, to find success at Akron.

Matt Rhule is a popular choice among some fans, but “went to Penn State” is an asset that promises nothing other than a nostalgic alumni corps until he too can’t beat Ohio State.

Curt Cignetti at Indiana? His contract runs until 2032. While not all of his contract details are public, Cignetti’s buyout to leave Indiana starts at $13 million, decreasing over time. Coupled with Franklin’s own buyout of about $48 million, the price tag for that change is high. Not to mention, Cignetti seems happy to be a Hoosier.

You can list a ton of coaching candidates, but there’s no way of knowing how it would go. As Bill O’Brien’s 2012 hire showed, unexpected names can do unexpected things. Simply put, whoever gets Penn State over the hump won’t have been hired with any guarantee of doing it. Every hire is a gamble.

And to be sure, uncertainty isn’t a reason to avoid change. But your hiring pool is no small part of creating a job opening.

The recruiting angle

Beyond that, there’s recruiting. Penn State has a verbal commitment from five-star running back Kemon Spell in the 2027 recruiting cycle and plenty of quality names around him in the next two classes. While time will tell if Spell lives up to the hype, coaching changes open the door to wholesale losses in recruiting and the locker room. A big name might be able to keep these guys on board, but nothing is certain.

There’s also Ethan Grunkemeyer. If we ignore the urge to assume the coaching staff is not playing its most prepared quarterback, Grunkemeyer’s legs might add the wrinkle that Penn State’s offense has been missing. While I don’t think anyone is suggesting Grunkemeyer is Trace McSorley 2.0, he can run with the ball — which Franklin and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki would probably like to do more of in a perfect world — and also has the benefit of far fewer mental wounds than Drew Allar has accumulated at this point. 

Which is to say, while there is uncertainty around Grunkemeyer, there’s at least some sort of vision for the future. That’s not even accounting for Jaxon Smolik, who bubbles up from time to time when it comes to complementary practice reports. Let alone transfer portal pickups.

And all of this leads us to the next three Penn State football schedules.

Looking into the future

In 2026, Penn State’s biggest game is a trip to Michigan. There’s no Ohio State or Oregon. There’s a trip to Washington, but that’s it. While the UCLA game has opened the door to losses you didn’t see coming, Penn State’s 2026 schedule appears about as friendly as it can get. Even if Franklin adds a loss to Michigan to his resume, there are 10 wins to be had without too much convincing.

The road gets tougher in 2027 with a game against Michigan and road trips to Oregon, Indiana and Illinois. That would be Year 2 of a new head coach, and in a transfer portal world it’s almost impossible to project what the Nittany Lions’ roster might look like by then. The 2027 season is going to be tough no matter what. The question here is, who can position Penn State to be successful in it?

In 2028, it’s a home date with Ohio State and a home date with Oregon. By then, Franklin’s contract would be down to its last four years, assuming no extension. By the end of the year his buyout would have dropped to $24 million, basically half what it is now. (Buyout calculations are summarized as $8 million multiplied by years left on contract.)

At that point, Franklin is firmly in “what’s next” mode, both personally and professionally, as he rounds the bend toward turning 60. Penn State would also start to kick the tires on what’s next, either an earned extension or a more amicable and financially friendly change.

All of this operates in the background of Franklin paying a token $1million buyout of his own if he wants to take a different job. But to forfeit the greatest job in sports, a recently fired coach with a nice buyout, would be a choice.

Penn State could make a change and find a spark — or tumble into a decade of rebuilding. But for now, betting on stability might be less about believing in James Franklin and more about looking at the big picture and the road that lies ahead.