USC vs. Notre Dame score prediction by expert football model

The Greatest Intersectional Rivalry in Sports gets underway as college football’s Week 8 action gets underway with No. 20 USC pays a visit to No. 13 Notre Dame. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Notre Dame is on a tear since that troubling 0-2 start, winning its last four games on the back of an improved defensive effort, coming off a big win over NC State and looking ahead to a winnable schedule as it looks to get back into playoff contention.

USC put itself back on the map last weekend, and back into the national rankings, with an important victory at home against then-ranked Michigan, playing some inspired defense in a double-digit win that could prove critical for Lincoln Riley’s tenure.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Trojans face off against the Fighting Irish?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Notre Dame compare in this Week 8 college football game, with our own projection.

USC vs. Notre Dame score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the home team to avoid the upset against its rival.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat USC by a projected score of 33 to 30 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Fighting Irish a 58 percent chance to defeat the Trojans outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 175-177 against the spread with a 49.7 win percentage. Last week, it was 31-25 (55.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting market is leaning heavily towards the Fighting Irish over the Trojans.

Notre Dame is a 9.5 point favorite against USC, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -345 and for USC at +265 to win outright.

The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable victory for the Irish.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Notre Dame will defeat USC by a projected score of 36 to 26.

How to pick the game

It’s tough to argue against the offense that USC put on the field in last week’s big win against Michigan, even if it did lose its top rusher to a season-ending injury.

Jayden Maiava has looked the part at quarterback and has the advantage of throwing to arguably college football’s greatest wide receiver duo in Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon, and both should find some angles against an Irish secondary that has struggled.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• USC +9.5
• Notre Dame -345
• Bet over 61.5 points

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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