Utah vs. BYU predictions, picks for college football rivalry game

The next installment of the Holy War rivalry is shaping up to be one of the biggest head-to-head meetings between Utah and BYU in recent memory.

With both squads featuring in the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll, Saturday's contest in Provo, Utah, will mark the first ranked matchup between the two schools since 2009. And given the Utes and Cougars combine for an 11-1 record going in, plenty of conference title and College Football Playoff at-large aspirations will be at stake when they go toe-to-toe for the 103rd time in their storied history.

As the college football world prepares to turn its attention to LaVell Edwards Stadium, here's a look at how a few prognosticators and advanced metrics predict the Utah-BYU showdown playing out.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: BYU has 51% win probability

ESPN's matchup predictor has been more favorable to the Utes since the start of the season, though that trend's being tested heading into Week 8. The Cougars currently hold a narrow edge with a 51% win probability rate in ESPN's advanced algorithm.

Utah, which was only favored in five of its 12 regular-season games heading into the 2025 campaign, according to ESPN analytics, has a favorable win probability in five of its final six contests, with the lone exception being its upcoming road trip to BYU.

ESPN SP+: Utah 24.4, BYU 24.0

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, predicts about as close a contest between the Utes and Cougars as possible — Utah's given a 51% chance of winning with a projected margin of 0.5 points. The algorithm's adjusted score for the game is 24-24, one of three ties forecasted in SP+'s model for the Week 8 slate.

Connelly's metrics-based formulas have accurately predicted the winner in five of Utah's six games so far this season, with the exception being its loss to Texas Tech on Sept. 20.

Fox Sports: Utah 27, BYU 23

With help from Data Skrive, Fox Sports foresees Utah pulling out a 4-point victory over its in-state rival.

Fox will have special pregame coverage of Saturday's showdown, with the Big Noon Kickoff crew in town to preview the game and the rest of college football's Week 8 schedule from BYU's campus.

The Sporting News: Utah 28, BYU 24

The Sporting News' Bill Bender notes how it's somewhat surprising to see the Utes favored in the betting markets, given the Cougars have won the last two head-to-head meetings, in his prediction for Saturday's Big 12 showdown.

Still, Bender has Utah coming out of LaVell Edwards Stadium with a narrow victory over its in-state rival.

"The Cougars are unbeaten, but Utah quarterback Devon Dampier presents a two-fold challenge for the BYU defense with a 71.5% completion percentage and averages 5.8 yards per carry," Bender writes. "Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier has seven TDs and one interception. Which QB makes the plays in the fourth quarter?"

USA Today: Utah 24, BYU 14

The prediction from USA Today's Austin Curtright is the only one that forecasts a double-digit margin for Saturday's game. The Utes' last win over the Cougars in 2019 was by a similar margin (30-12), though 13 of the last 14 meetings dating back to 1997 have been decided by nine points or fewer.