Week 5 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

As we do every week, we will preview the biggest games of the weekend and give our official predictions.

Let's take a look at the biggest games of the Week 5 slate.

2025 Prediction Record: 49-11
2022-24 Record: 382-122

No. 18 West Georgia at Southern Utah

Kickoff: 7:30 pm CT (ESPN+)

West Georgia has turned heads in only its second season at the Division I level with an impressive 4-0 start. The Wolves have won three of their first four games by 21 points or more, all over FCS opponents, which makes it even more impressive. It's been another story for Southern Utah, which fell to 1-3 with a loss to UC Davis last weekend. The Thunderbirds know they will have to make a run in the UAC to have a chance at a postseason bid, making this game a must-win situation.

The Wolves have found plenty of success on the ground, averaging 215.8 yards per game. It's a dangerous matchup for Southern Utah's defense, which just allowed over 350 rushing yards and five scores to UC Davis. This is going to be a massive test for the Thunderbirds. Latrelle Murrell leads the Wolves with 422 rushing yards on 6.4 yards per carry, while freshman TJ Lester leads the team with five touchdowns. If West Georgia is able to establish the run, it's going to be a long night for Southern Utah.

It's a much more even battle on the other side of the ball. West Georgia's defense has been excellent, allowing only 274.3 yards per game, ranking No. 1 in the UAC and top 15 nationally. Southern Utah's offense leads the conference with 492 yards per game, while ranking second in scoring offense with 39 points per game. Bronson Barron has been outstanding, throwing for 1,153 yards, nine touchdowns, and only one interception. This will be one of the biggest tests of the season for West Georgia's defense.

Southern Utah has played really well at home, even pushing Northern Arizona two weeks ago in a shootout. It's a very long trip from Georgia to Utah, giving this game all the makings of a potential upset. College football is all about matchups and I see Southern Utah's offense making enough plays to escape with an upset at home.

Prediction: Southern Utah (38-35)

No. 12 Abilene Christian at Incarnate Word

Kickoff: 6 pm CT (ESPN+)

Incarnate Word is facing the ultimate must-win situation on Saturday night. The Cardinals are desperately looking for a win after a tough 1-3 start, including losses to Northern Arizona and Nicholls. It's been a different story for Abilene Christian, which is 2-0 against FCS teams, both coming over ranked opponents.

Incarnate Word's offense continues to look much improved behind quarterback EJ Colson. In two games, he's thrown for 505 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions. Even with two All-Americans, sophomore Jameson Garcia leads the Cardinals with 340 yards and three touchdowns. The biggest issue for this offense has been the offensive line, which has led to struggles in the run game.

The Cardinals rank No. 101 nationally in sacks allowed (12) and No. 117 in rushing offense (81 YPG). It's going to be a tough matchup against Abilene Christian's defense, which has played well against the run. In two FCS games, the Wildcats are only allowing 79.5 rushing yards per game and have forced six sacks. If UIW is going to pull off the upset, the Cardinals are going to have to protect Colson while finding some way to take the pressure off of him with the run.

Quarterback Stone Earle has not missed a beat since returning to Abilene Christian. The senior is completing 71% of his passes for 1,009 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also has four rushing touchdowns, which include two from last weekend's win over Austin Peay. The Wildcats have some new pieces at wide receiver, but the room hasn't taken a step back. Six players have already topped the 100-yard mark this season, led by Dallas Dudley with 200 yards on 18 catches.

This could be a much closer game than expected, and a desperate UIW team could really flip the script with a win, but something tells me Abilene Christian isn't overlooking this game. I think the Wildcats have the advantage on both lines of scrimmage, which will be a problem for UIW. Stone Earle's playmaking ability, combined with his experience, gives me confidence that Abilene Christian finds a way to get it done on the road.

Prediction: Abilene Christian (38-31)

No. 17 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State

Kickoff: 1 pm CT (ESPN+)

No team at the FCS level has been as dominant as North Dakota State. The Bison have had a fairly easy schedule, but this level of dominance is impressive, regardless of the strength of schedule. The defense is only allowing 5.7 points and 158 yards per game, holding opponents to 3.2 yards per play. Not only have the Bison been playing at an elite level, but this will also be a revenge game after South Dakota stunned NDSU in the final week of the regular season last year.

South Dakota's offense has gone through some struggles, which is no surprise given all the losses the Coyotes had to overcome. Losing Charles Pierre Jr. has opened the door for LJ Phillips Jr., who has delivered some outstanding performances. In the past two games, he's rushed for 444 yards and six touchdowns. That's going to be the key for the Coyotes. Run the ball, control the clock, and take the pressure off Aidan Bouman.

The issue is that North Dakota State's defense has completely suffocated opposing offenses. The Bison are allowing 2.4 yards per carry and have only allowed one rushing touchdown. It starts with one of the best defensive tackle rotations in the country. Jaxon Duttenhefer and Keenan Wilson have combined for 14 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Add that to stellar play from linebackers Nathaniel Staehling and Logan Kopp, I expect the Bison to give the Coyotes a ton of problems in the run game.

This game could really fall on the shoulders of Aidan Bouman, who will have his prove-it moment in the Fargodome. He's struggled this year, only completing 50.6% of his passes for 559 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. Does South Dakota have the playmakers on the outside to win 1-on-1 matchups? That's the biggest question this weekend. Larenzo Fenner and Jack Martens are going to have to make some plays on the outside if the Coyotes want to have a chance at the upset.

If there were any questions about Cole Payton's ability to throw, those were put to rest last weekend against SEMO. Payton has completed 70.9% of his passes for 706 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. He's also still a big threat with his legs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. He's also surrounded by one of the best wide receiver rooms in the FCS. Bryce Lance leads the Bison with 239 yards on 21.7 yards per reception, while RaJa Nelson leads the team with four receiving touchdowns.

South Dakota looked improved last week, but Drake isn't North Dakota State, and this feels like a terrible matchup for the Coyotes. I don't see South Dakota having enough offensive firepower to put any pressure on the Bison, which is a major problem. Add all this to North Dakota State having an extra week to prepare. I see the Bison making a statement at home on Saturday.

Prediction: North Dakota State (38-17)

No. 8 Idaho at No. 5 Montana

Kickoff: 9:15 pm CT (ESPN2)

Not only do we finally get Big Sky After Dark, but it's also a battle for the Little Brown Stein. Montana is off to a hot start, moving to 3-0 with a dominant win over Indiana State last weekend. The Grizzlies also made headlines with a ranked win over North Dakota two weeks ago. Idaho is 2-2 overall, but remains 2-0 against the FCS. Neither FCS performance was inspiring, but a win is a win in college football. There's still plenty to prove for both of these teams.

Even after an All-American season, Eli Gillman continues to find ways to elevate his game to the next level. He leads the Grizzlies with 400 rushing yards and six touchdowns on only 44 carries. He leads the FCS in yards per carry (9.1), which further cements his case as the best running back in the FCS. We still have no idea about Idaho's run defense, which has been inconsistent at times. The Vandals held Washington State to only three rushing yards, but allowed over 200 against St. Thomas. If the Vandals find a way to make the Grizzlies one-dimensional, this game could get very interesting.

This game really comes down to the quarterback battle, specifically Keali'i Ah Yat, who has taken a massive step forward in his development. He's completed 67.8% of his passes for 863 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions. The key for Ah Yat will be limiting turnovers, as Idaho is likely to look to control the clock. Giving the Vandals extra possessions will put the Grizzlies in a difficult spot.

Joshua Wood has been outstanding for the Vandals. He leads the team in rushing with 314 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 8.7 yards per carry. He's also completing 62.7% of his passes for 665 yards and six touchdowns. Wood's athleticism is the biggest x-factor for this offense. Montana's linebackers will be tested. That unit is going to have to make open-field tackles, while also staying disciplined in their rush lanes, not allowing Wood to escape the pocket.

One matchup I'll be watching very closely is Montana's cornerbacks against Idaho's wide receivers. The Grizzlies will trust their corners to play 1-on-1, which will put pressure on Idaho's wide receivers to win those matchups on the outside. Kyon Loud is playing at an All-American level right now. He's been targeted 18 times, allowing only five catches. Emmerson Cortez-Menjivar leads the Vandals with 198 yards, while Ryan Jezioro leads the team with three receiving touchdowns.

I just have a feeling about this Montana team that it could be a special season. The defense is playing at a high level right now, while Ah Yat's development makes this offense extremely dangerous. Wood is too explosive not to respect Idaho, but I think the Grizzlies make enough plays on both sides of the ball to get the win on Saturday night.

Prediction: Montana (31-21)

Other Week 5 Predictions:

No. 4 Montana State 38, Eastern Washington 13

No. 9 UC Davis 34, Weber State 20

No. 10 Lehigh 24, Penn 17

No. 13 Tennessee Tech 45, Tennessee State 21

No. 19 Jackson State 31, Southern 20

No. 20 Villanova 27, William & Mary 23

ETSU 23, Mercer 20

Alabama State 34, Florida A&M 24

Western Carolina 49, Campbell 42

Southeastern Louisiana 35, UTRGV 21

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