What Does ESPN's FPI Say About The Matchup Against Virginia Tech?

South Carolina is less than a day away from the beginning of their season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. There is a renewed optimism around the Gamecocks after a strong finish to their 2024 campaign and the emergence of their star quarterback, LaNorris Sellers. Head coach Shane Beamer achieved his most wins in his South Carolina tenure, and the Gamecocks narrowly missed out on the College Football Playoff.

Sellers was a pivotal piece in the Gamecocks winning nine games a season ago. His continued growth and ascension will be pivotal to the success of South Carolina in 2025.

A thing to watch for the Gamecocks is whether their defense will be as good as a year ago. South Carolina was the No. 16-ranked team in total defense a season ago, giving up just 316.6 yards per game. The Gamecocks ranked No. 14 in yards per play, giving up just 4.84 per play. After losing Kyle Kennard and Nick Emmanwori, who were stars from last season for the Gamecocks, who will emerge as the new defensive stars outside of Dylan Stewart this season for South Carolina?

The Gamecocks are a touchdown favorite in their game against Virginia Tech. ESPN FPI gives South Carolina a 70.9% to win, and Virginia Tech is given just a 29.1% chance to win. South Carolina returns a good amount of its roster from last year, and with a potential Heisman candidate returning, the Gamecocks are expecting to have a big season this year.

Ahead of the 2025 season, South Carolina is the No.11 team according to the College Football Power Index. The Gamecocks projected win total falls between 4.3-7.8 wins for 2025. South Carolina has a 93.8% chance of winning six games. They also have the sixth-highest odds in the SEC to make the playoffs with a 33.8% chance according to the index.

So what is ESPN FPI?

“ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."