Penn State Nittany Lions News

Home

Quizzes

Newsletter

Dabo Swinney's track record represents a potential best case scenario if Penn State hires a first-time head coach. A reasonable best case scenario for Penn State, if the Nittany Lions hire a first-time head coach, may be Dabo Swinney’s track record at Clemson. (Syndication: The Greenville News)

What History Says About Penn State Hiring Terry Smith … And Why the Risk Is Real

Originally posted on Nittany Central | By Ethan Johnson | Last updated Nov 26, 2025 11:24 AM ET

https://nittanycentral.com/feed/

James Franklin is gone, and Terry Smith is temporarily in. But after Penn State demolished Nebraska, many are calling for Smith to be the future of this program. The fanbase is torn between two instincts:

Stability or ambition?

Continuity or reset?

Safe internal promotion or proven outsider?

Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft must weigh the benefits, and the risks when potentially hiring a first-time head coach, as the Nittany Lions‘ search for Franklin’s replacement continues.

Penn State Is at a Crossroads After James Franklin’s Firing

Let’s look at what history has to say about what the future could hold if Penn State hires Terry Smith, who has no previous head coaching experience.

Year	Champion & Coach	Year at the program when they won	Prior head-coaching experience?	Notes
2000	Oklahoma – Bob Stoops	2nd year	No (first-time HC)	Stoops hired Dec 1998, won in Year 2
2001	Miami – Larry Coker	1st year	No (first-time HC)	Promoted from OC, inherited greatest roster ever
2002	Ohio State – Jim Tressel	2nd year	Yes	Youngstown State (D-I AA titles)
2003	LSU – Nick Saban	4th year	Yes	Toledo 1990
2004	USC – Pete Carroll	4th year	Yes	NFL (Patriots, Jets)
2005	Texas – Mack Brown	8th year	Yes	Tulane, others
2006	Florida – Urban Meyer	2nd year	Yes	Utah (Fiesta Bowl)
2007	LSU – Les Miles	3rd year	Yes	Oklahoma State
2008	Florida – Urban Meyer	Repeat (4th year)	Yes
2009	Alabama – Nick Saban	3rd year	Yes	LSU, Michigan State
2010	Auburn – Gene Chizik	2nd year	Yes	Iowa State
2011	Alabama – Nick Saban	Repeat (5th year)	Yes
2012	Alabama – Nick Saban	Repeat (6th year)	Yes
2013	Florida State – Jimbo Fisher	4th year	No (first-time HC)	Promoted from OC/successor-in-waiting
2014	Ohio State – Urban Meyer	3rd year	Yes	Florida, Utah
2015	Alabama – Nick Saban	Repeat (9th year)	Yes
2016	Clemson – Dabo Swinney	8th year	No (first-time HC)	Promoted from WR coach
2017	Alabama – Nick Saban	Repeat (11th year)	Yes
2018	Clemson – Dabo Swinney	Repeat (10th year)	No (first-time HC)
2019	LSU – Ed Orgeron	4th year	Yes	Ole Miss interim
2020	Alabama – Nick Saban	Repeat (14th year)	Yes
2021	Georgia – Kirby Smart	6th year	No (first-time HC)	Saban disciple, blank check at UGA
2022	Georgia – Kirby Smart	Repeat (7th year)	No (first-time HC)
2023	Michigan – Jim Harbaugh	9th year	Yes	Stanford, 49ers
2024	Ohio State – Ryan Day	6th year	No (first-time HC)	Inherited Urban Meyer machine

The Numbers Don’t Lie — Experience Dominates Championship Success

25 national titles

6 won by first-time head coaches (excluding repeats)

18 won by coaches with prior head-coaching experience

Key points:

– Since 2000, only 6 first-time head coaches have won a national championship.

– Of those 6, two have repeated (Swinney and Smart), and one (Day) is well on his way to repeating.

– Only 2 (Stoops and Coker) won within the first three years, while Swinney, Smart, and Day each took 6 years or more.

– Each of the 6 first-time head coaches inherited programs with stacked rosters, facilities, and/or financial support.

What About Conference Titles and Playoff Runs?

Right out the gate, if Penn State goes with an internal hire such as Terry Smith, their chances of winning a national championship, historically speaking, are low.

But, what about competing with Ohio State, Oregon, and other B1G powerhouses for conference championships? What about getting to the national championship?

Penn State players have rallied around interim head coach Terry Smith. Penn State players have rallied around interim head coach Terry Smith. (Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images)

Penn State fans are painfully familiar with Marcus Freeman, who led Notre Dame to a win over Penn State in the Orange Bowl in 2024.

Freeman was an internal hire, and he has had remarkable success. His four and a half years at Notre Dame have produced a 41-12 record, a 3-1 playoff record, and numerous bowl games.

Freeman looks like he could join our list of six coaches to win a national championship.

On the flip side, Brent Venables, the first-time head coach at Oklahoma, has an overall record of 31-19 in three and a half seasons and three bowl game losses.

These two examples highlight the risk of hiring a head coach who doesn’t have previous experience. Many times, a program is stabilized by an internal hire without head coaching experience, but the ceiling is not elevated. The ceiling typically hovers around a 0.500-0.750 record, like we’ve seen from Sam Pittman (Arkansas), Eliah Drinkwitz (Missouri), and Billy Napier (Florida).

What This Means for Penn State and Terry Smith

Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith picked up his first home win in Happy Valley, vs. Nebraska. Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith has galvanized the Nittany Lions, and led a two-game winning streak. (Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images)

The James Franklin-led Nittany Lions were consistently solid and consistently disappointing.

The floor for this team has been high, but if Penn State wants to raise the ceiling, they must find a coach with experience.

The safe answer can’t possibly be the answer for Pat Kraft and company.