Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck reacts in the first half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio. Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Why beating Purdue is as close to a 'must-win' as it gets for the Gophers

Originally posted on Minnesota Golden Gophers on SI
By Tony Liebert | Last updated Oct 10, 2025 3:21 PM ET

Must-win is a term that is grossly overused in sports, but it might be appropriate for Minnesota's game this week against Purdue. Here's why.

Rest-of-season expectations

Optimistic fans predicted that the Gophers could be 4-1 at this point of the season, but 3-2 is far from a surprising outcome, with both losses coming on the road to power conference opponents. With seven Big Ten games left on the schedule, there's still a lot on the table for Minnesota, but it all starts this weekend against the Boilermakers.

Minnesota has lost two straight games against Purdue, dating back to 2023 and 2022. On paper, this year's matchup is a game that should go to the Gophers. The Boilermakers have a first-year head coach and probably zero clear advantages on the football field. Betting markets agree with the Gophers as 7.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday afternoon.

Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Entering pivotal stretch

If Minnesota takes care of business, it will face a pivotal three-game stretch against Nebraska, Iowa and Michigan State before its last bye week, and then Oregon, Northwestern and Wisconsin to finish the season. A 9-3 season is still realistically on the table with a win, but what if they lose?

Disaster scenario

If the Gophers are upset at home by the Boilermakers, things could fall off the rails fast. At 3-3, they would then welcome a top-25 caliber Nebraska team to Huntington Bank Stadium on a short week. Minnesota could realistically be short betting underdogs in that game, and the Cornhuskers would be motivated to earn their first win in Minneapolis since 2015.

Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The Gophers could be looking at 3-4 start right in the face, before a road trip to Iowa City, a place where they've only won once since 1999. A home game against Michigan State the following week looks favorable on paper, but the Spartans have not been a pushover this season.

Realistic expectations

Ultimately, Minnesota has an opportunity to take some pressure off itself this week against Purdue and pick up its second Big Ten win before the third week of October. A split in toss-up games against Nebraska and Iowa would become a much easier pill to swallow at 4-2.

The term must-win should always be followed with some context. If Minnesota wants to exceed expectations this season and go 8-4 or 9-3, it must win against Purdue. If it wants to finish 6-6 or 7-5, this week's game isn't that important.

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This article first appeared on Minnesota Golden Gophers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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