Wisconsin Badgers vs. Middle Tennessee State betting odds for Week 2

That’s the kind of spread that screams mismatch, and on paper, it is. But this isn’t just about the numbers, it’s about what kind of performance we see from Luke Fickell and company in the follow-up to Week 1.

This is where the context matters. Wisconsin beat Miami (OH) 17-0 in the opener, and while Mike Tressel's defense pitched a shutout, Jeff Grimes' offense was uneven and lost starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. to a sprained knee. Edwards is listed as week-to-week, meaning sophomore transfer Danny O’Neil could get his first career start in Madison. That alone adds a layer of intrigue to a game Vegas expects to be a blowout.

So, what do we make of Middle Tennessee? Derrick Mason is in his second season as head coach, and the Blue Raiders are still searching for an identity. They went 3-9 a year ago, fielding one of the 12 worst offenses and one of the eight worst defenses in college football, per PFF.

They lost their starting running back and top two pass catchers this offseason, and while quarterback Nick Vattiato returns after consecutive 3,000-yard passing seasons, he’s without proven weapons on the outside.

Defensively, Mason turned to Brian Stewart, a name Big Ten fans might remember from his stops at Maryland and Nebraska, but the results haven’t flipped the script. Last season, MTSU allowed 35-plus points in eight of twelve games, and they opened this year giving up 34 in a loss to Austin Peay. Add in the fact that the Blue Raiders are 0-9 all-time against Big Ten teams, and the hill they have to climb Saturday looks steep.

For Wisconsin, this matchup is less about the opponent and more about showing growth. We saw the defense dominate in Week 1, giving up just 117 total yards, seven first downs, and holding the Redhawks to under three yards per play. However, the offense failed to create explosive plays against an inferior MAC opponent despite looking functional.

If O’Neil is under center, the Badgers will need to lean on their ground game and hope the offensive line holds up better than it did in stretches against Miami (OH). The line suggests Vegas expects Wisconsin to roll, as they should, but the real question is whether the Badgers can clean things up, look sharper, and be more explosive than they were last week.

No matter who’s under center for the Badgers, this is one of the weakest teams in college football — and they’re coming off a loss to an FCS opponent. Anything short of another dominant showing isn’t going to inspire much confidence heading into the trip to Tuscaloosa. This is the chance for Wisconsin to prove the standard has been raised, and that the offense can help carry its weight regardless of who’s taking the snaps.

History says the Badgers should coast. The spread says the Badgers should coast. But like we saw last week, the real story isn’t about covering the number. It’s about how Wisconsin football looks doing it.

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