Outlining Charles Leclerc's unlikely route to F1 world championship

Charles Leclerc is quietly putting together a late charge for the 2024 F1 world championship. While it is a massive mountain to climb, Leclerc is still in position to win the championship if the cards fall in his favor. Here's how it can happen.

As things stand, championship leader Max Verstappen has 354 points, Lando Norris is behind him at 297 points and Leclerc sits in third place with 275 points. There are five races left this season: Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and the finale in Abu Dhabi. Of those five races, two are sprint races in Brazil and Qatar. 

If Leclerc wants to win the most unlikely championship, he would have to win all of the remaining races and finish first in both of the sprint races. That would see him finish with 416 points. Leclerc would then have to rely on Norris to finish fourth or lower in every race and sprint race, finishing with 367 points, and Verstappen to finish fifth or lower in the remaining races and sprint races, finishing with 412 points, four short of Leclerc. 

This does not take into account the extra point given for getting the fastest lap of the race, but if Leclerc wants to make this unlikely charge for the title, he should aim to grab at least one fastest lap through the last five races. 

Clearly, the odds of this happening are extremely low. But they're not impossible. The Ferrari driver has been putting in fantastic performances since late summer and is driving like someone who believes the world championship is still in play.

Leclerc has finished in the top five in every race since the Belgian Grand Prix in July, grabbing two sensational wins in Monza and Austin. The Ferraris surprised many in the most recent race in Austin where they were far and away the fastest team, beating out the favorites, Red Bull and McLaren. 

The next race in Mexico could play well into Ferrari and Leclerc's favor. The team was quick around the track last year, finishing in third and fourth. And with a better car this year, a win is very much in play for Leclerc this weekend.

Ultimately, while Leclerc's world championship hopes are extremely low, in the world of Formula 1, anything is possible. For the first time since 2021, there is a genuine title fight coming down to the wire after years of Red Bull's dominance.