Alabama vs Saint Mary's Prediction, Preview & Odds: NCAA Tournament Second Round

Alabama vs Saint Mary's How To Watch

Date: Sunday, March 23
Venue: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
Time: COMING
TV: COMING
Teams: (7) Saint Mary's (29-5), (2) Alabama (26-8)
Region: East
NCAA Tournament Schedule, Predictions, Previews

Why Saint Mary's Will Win

It doesn’t matter who you are, you will play the way Saint Mary’s wants you to.

It’s not that the Gaels are slow; they’re very, very measured. They don’t take a wasted shot, use their size to clean up every miss, and they grab EVERY rebound - they’re No. 1 in the nation in rebounding margin.

They can come up with fast break points; they just don’t do it.

They held Gonzaga to 58 points twice and 67 the second time. Only two teams hit 70 points against this bunch since Nebraska got there in a loss back in mid-November.

Why Alabama Will Win

It doesn’t matter who you are, you will play Alabama wants you to.

Saint Mary’s leads the nation in rebounding margin, but Alabama leads the nation in total rebounds and defensive rebounds. The difference is that the Tide takes the ball and rockets up the floor after getting the bard and makes you chase.

Saint Mary’s will try to control the tempo and offset that, but it’s more likely to play Bama’s style than the other way around, especially if the Tide can get up early on and start hitting threes. But …

Alabama vs St. Mary's: Who Will Win?

Bama usually struggles when it can’t do what it likes.

It’s just 1-3 this season when it doesn’t get to 80 points. That one win? McNeese.

How many teams got to 80 against Saint Mary’s? No one.
Not Utah State, not Gonzaga - three times - not Akron and its high-octane attack, no one. The Gaels will keep this under 80.

Alabama has size, but Grant Nelson is a bit banged up - he played in the first round when things started to get sketchy - but is he really 100%? Neither team is great at shooting free throws, and that’s what it’ll come down to.

But considering this will be way too low scoring for the Tide …

Alabama vs Saint Mary's Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: Saint Mary’s 77, Alabama 75
Alabama vs Saint Mary's Betting Lines
BetMGM Line: Alabama -5.5, o/u: 147.5
DraftKings Line: Alabama -5.5, o/u: 147.5
FanDuel Line: Alabama -5.5, o/u: 147.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2.5
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